Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma
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Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma David Marasco1 · Pamela Murray‑Tuite2 · Seth Guikema3 · Tom Logan3 Received: 18 July 2018 / Accepted: 28 May 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times. Keywords Evacuation · Florida · Hurricane Irma · Travel time
1 Introduction Hurricane Irma’s approach in September 2017 led to a variety of evacuation announcements in the southeastern USA. Florida Governor Rick Scott urged residents to prepare for rapid evacuation on September 5 (Mitchell 2017), and, 2 days later, he issued another public statement to emphasize the danger the storm posed (WFLA staff 2017). These warnings were accompanied by local advisories around Florida. Also on September 5, Florida Keys emergency management officials issued a mandatory evacuation order for both tourists (beginning the next morning) and residents (beginning the evening of Sept. 6) (NWS Key * Pamela Murray‑Tuite [email protected] 1
Planning, Design and the Built Environment, Clemson University, Lee Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, USA
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Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Lowry Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, USA
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Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, 1205 Beal Ave., Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
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Natural Hazards
West 2017a, b). Irma made landfall near Cudjoe Key as a category 4 hurricane around 9:00 a.m. on September 10 and a subsequent landfall near Marco Island, FL around 3:35 pm local time (Stein et al. 2017; Weather Underground 2018). As Irma approached the Florida coast, some communities received advisories while others received mandatory evacuation notices (e.g., the differences between areas in the Florida panhandle, as shown by Etters (2017) and Payne (2017)). The announcements, initial concern, and uncertainty surrounding the storm’s path resulted in evacuation traffic across Florida. The traffic continued into Georgia and South Carolina, as those states were both evacuation destin
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