Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switz
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(2020) 156:10
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Open Access
Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland Martin Huber and Henrika Langen*
Abstract We assess the impact of the timing of lockdown measures implemented in Germany and Switzerland on cumulative COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates. Our analysis exploits the fact that the epidemic was more advanced in some regions than in others when certain lockdown measures came into force, based on measuring health outcomes relative to the region-specific start of the epidemic and comparing outcomes across regions with earlier and later start dates. When estimating the effect of the relative timing of measures, we control for regional characteristics and initial epidemic trends by linear regression (Germany and Switzerland), doubly robust estimation (Germany), or synthetic controls (Switzerland). We find for both countries that a relatively later exposure to the measures entails higher cumulative hospitalization and death rates on region-specific days after the outbreak of the epidemic, suggesting that an earlier imposition of measures is more effective than a later one. For Germany, we further evaluate curfews (as introduced in a subset of states) based on cross-regional variation. We do not find any effects of curfews on top of the federally imposed contact restriction that banned groups of more than 2 individuals. Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Social distancing, Lockdown, Treatment effect, Synthetic control JEL classification: I18, I12, H12
1 Introduction This paper assesses how the timing of the lockdown measures implemented in Switzerland and Germany affects the development of cumulative COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates. In both countries, the federal governments implemented extensive lockdown measures, including the closure of non-essential shops, schools, childcare centers, cafes, bars, and restaurants. In Germany, these measures were further enhanced with a ban on gatherings with more than two people decided at federal level and curfews implemented in several states. With the measures in place for some weeks, both countries report a flattening of the COVID-19 epidemic curve. This *Correspondence: [email protected] University of Fribourg, Bd. de Pérolles 90, 1700, Fribourg, Switzerland
alone, however, does not necessarily exclusively reflect the impact of the measures, but likely also general time trends in the spread of the virus. For this reason, this study aims to provide evidence about the causal effects of the German and Swiss measures by exploiting variation (i) in their relative timing due the fact that the epidemic was more advanced in some regions than in others when certain measures came into force and (ii) across regions due to the fact that some measures were only introduced in a subset of regions. A range of studies on the impact of COVID-19 response measures focus on predicting the development of the pa
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