Trends and variability of ocean waves under RCP8.5 emission scenario in the Mediterranean Sea
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Trends and variability of ocean waves under RCP8.5 emission scenario in the Mediterranean Sea Francesco De Leo1
· Giovanni Besio1
· Lorenzo Mentaschi2
Received: 30 May 2020 / Accepted: 20 October 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Wind-generated ocean waves are key inputs for several studies and applications, both near the coast (coastal vulnerability assessment, coastal structures design, harbor operativity) and off-shore (a.o. oil and gas production, ship routes, and navigation safety). As such, the evaluation of trends in future wave climate is fundamental for the development of efficient policies in the framework of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. This study focuses on the Mediterranean Sea, an area of primary interest, since it plays a crucial role in the worldwide maritime transport and it is highly populated along all its coasts. We perform an analysis of wave climate changes using an ensemble of 7 models under emission scenario RCP8.5, over the entire Mediterranean basin. Future projections of wave climate and their variability are analyzed taking into account annual statistics of wave parameters, such as significant wave height, mean period, and mean direction. The results show, on average, a decreasing trend of significant wave height and mean period, while the wave directions may be characterized by a slight eastward shift. Keywords Wave climate projection · Mediterranean Sea · Trend analysis
1 Introduction Since the dawn of human history, many civilizations thrived along the shores of the Mediterranean Sea (MS), deriving sustenance from its resources, and trading and spreading across its waters. Until present times, this basin retained a prominent role in the development of human culture and economy. Today, about half billion people live along the Mediterranean shores, with consequent concentration of critical infrastructures and sites of cultural heritage. About 20% of the world’s seaborne commerce, and 10% of the container traffic pass through the MS, making it one of the
Responsible Editor: Val Swail This article is part of the Topical Collection on the 16th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting in Melbourne, AU, November 10–15, 2019 Francesco De Leo
[email protected] 1
Department of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Genoa, Genoa, 16145, Italy
2
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
busiest seas in the world (Leone 2017). Therefore, a detailed knowledge and monitoring of oceanographic variables in this basin is of foremost importance. In particular, gravity waves play a relevant role on several aspects of ocean and coastal dynamics. They are one of the main drivers of coastal erosion and accretion (De Leo et al. 2016; Harley et al. 2017; Mentaschi et al. 2018). Extreme and multimodal sea states can pose a threat to the safety of navigation and to coastal structures (Soares and Teixeira 2001; de Os´es and Castells 2008; Ventikos et al. 2018). Wave setup and runup contribute to the extrem
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