Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclone
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Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries Yuriy Kuleshov1,2,3 · Paul Gregory1 · Andrew B. Watkins1 · Robert J. B. Fawcett1 Received: 19 December 2019 / Accepted: 28 July 2020 © Crown 2020
Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect countries in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics every year causing significant humanitarian impacts and much damage to the natural environment. To reduce TC impacts on societies, early warning systems (EWS) are used to communicate the risk to the public. In 1999, the Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative (CCSHTCII) was established to enhance EWS for TCs in SH countries, with particular focus on support for small island developing states and least developed countries to provide effective public early warnings of TC risk. In this paper, recent activities of the CCSHTCII to strengthen TC EWS are presented. Using TC best track data from the SH TC historical data archive, the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual and spatial variability of TC activity is examined. TCENSO relationships in the SH are analysed and used as a scientific basis for the production of TC season outlooks. Communication of TC early warnings through TC season outlooks is described, and recommendations for improving outlooks are provided. Keywords Tropical cyclones · Small island developing states (SIDS) · Least developed countries (LDCs) · Early warning systems (EWS) · Risk communication to the public · Disaster risk reduction
1 Introduction Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect countries in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics every year causing significant loss of life, property and income from destructive winds, torrential rain, high ocean waves and storm surge. Typically, TC impacts on small island developing
* Yuriy Kuleshov [email protected] 1
Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Victoria, Australia
2
Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
3
The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
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states (SIDS) and least developed countries (LDCs) are particularly devastating due to their high vulnerability, fragile economy and low resilience. A recent example of severe TC impact on Pacific Island Countries was TC Winston, which devastated Fiji in February 2016. Severe TC Winston was the most intense tropical cyclone on record in the SH, and the strongest to make landfall in the SH. TC Winston was also the costliest TC on record in the South Pacific Ocean (SPO). In Fiji, 44 fatalities were related to impact of TC Winston, while damage and economic losses totalled about $1.4 Billion (2016 USD) (Cyclone Winston 2016). In the South Indian Ocean (SIO), TC Idai made landfall in Mozambique in March 2019 bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds and significant storm surge. TC Idai caused over 1300 fatalitie
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