Use of Salt-Transfer Parameters in Forecast Decisions
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IED PROBLEMS OF ARID LAND DEVELOPMENT
Use of Salt-Transfer Parameters in Forecast Decisions A. P. Belousova* Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333 Russia *e-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Received February 14, 2020; revised May 1, 2020; accepted June 1, 2020
Abstract—The article discusses methods to assess the reliability of salt-transfer parameters that were previously calculated with models of the microdispersion, macrodispersion, and dissolution of salts, with a view to their further use in predictive assessments of the development of salt-transfer processes in irrigation systems. The evaluation included statistical methods with the Fisher and Student criteria with the subsequent determination of the systematic error. The most adequate models for objects of the eastern Ciscaucasia and the Saratov Trans-Volga regions are established. To use the salt-transfer parameters in forecast estimates based on their linear and nonlinear statistical dependences on the lithological structure of the aeration zone and its filtration properties, the corresponding multidimensional statistical equations are obtained. Keywords: salt transfer, salt-transfer models, reliability of parameters, statistical dependences, linear and nonlinear equations and dependences DOI: 10.1134/S2079096120040034
INTRODUCTION The determination of the salt-transfer parameters was considered according to the models of salt microdispersion, macrodispersion, and dissolution at the stage of previously published studies (Belousova, 2019). The parameters were determined in field conditions on pillars1 and in laboratory conditions on large and small monoliths. The assessment of the reliability of these parameters is a natural problem that arises for their further use in forecast calculations.
cesses of salinization and desalination in pore solutions and filtrates. 2. The experimental and calculated output curves were compared. Let us consider an example of the verification of the reliability of the salt-transfer parameters determined in a monolith according to the microdispersion model (Fig. 1) in Cl– ion pore solution). The comparison was carried out according to the Fisher and Student criteria when two variances are evaluated; the variance of the experimental data was taken as the true variance. The Fisher criterion (F) for was 1.33 for Cl– ions, 1.41 for Ca2+ ions, 1.23 for Mg2+
MATERIALS AND METHODS Assessment of the Reliability of the Salt-Transfer Parameters. This assessment includes several steps. 1. For each salt-transfer model: the salt microdispersion, macrodispersion and dissolution and the calculated output curves of the ion concentration are constructed by substituting the salt-transfer parameter obtained in experimental studies into the corresponding equations and the subsequent determination of the ion concentrations according to these equations(the relative concentrations may be C ) (Roshchal, 1980; Shestakov, 1979; Shestakov et al., 1992; Bochever et al., 1979; Belousova, 2019). Curves are plotted f
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