A consolidated potential analysis of bio-methane and e-methane using two different methods for a medium-term renewable g
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Energy, Sustainability and Society
Open Access
A consolidated potential analysis of bio‑methane and e‑methane using two different methods for a medium‑term renewable gas supply in Germany Patrick Matschoss1, Michael Steubing2* , Joachim Pertagnol1, Yue Zheng1, Bernhard Wern1, Martin Dotzauer3 and Daniela Thrän2
Abstract Background: The German energy transition has entered a new phase and one important aspect is the question, to what degree the gas sector could be supplied with so-called “green” gases, i.e., gases from renewable sources. This paper focuses on the potential of domestic methane from biological origin (bio-CH4) until 2030 that is estimated with two different methods. The comparison of the results provides a consolidated estimate. Methods: In a bottom-up approach, a GIS-based cluster analysis was undertaken to estimate the potential on bio-CH4 from the existing cogeneration biogas plant (BP) stock. In a top-down approach a meta-analysis of GHGreduction scenarios with respect to bio-CH4 was performed. The meta-analysis was also extended to methane from renewable electricity (e-CH4) since the BP stock may play a role in the provision of CO2. Further, it included the year 2050 (the target year for most scenario studies) as well as issues like energy imports. Results: The bottom-up approach yields a potential of 24.9 TWh of bio-CH4 for 2030. This is well within the range of the top-down analysis of 11–54 TWh (average: 32.5 TWh) for that year. In some scenarios values for e-CH4 where considerably higher, especially with respect to 2050, but in these studies the sources—including the C O2 sources—are either not explained at all or they are due to imports of e-CH4 in combination with direct air capture (DAC) rather than biogenic sources. Concerning the regional dispersion, the bottom-up analysis shows that the largest potentials (53% or 905 of the biogas plants) are located in the northern part of Germany, more particular in Lower-Saxony, SchleswigHolstein, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. These represent 54% or 602 MW of the installed capacity of the clusters. Conclusion: The consistency of the outcomes of the two methodologically very different approaches may be called the main result of this research. Therefore, it provides a consolidated analysis of the potential for domestic supply of bio-CH4 in 2030. Furthermore, the amount corresponds to 2.7–3.5% of the German natural gas consumption in 2018. Taken bio-CH4 and e-CH4 together it corresponds to 7.2–8.0%. Keywords: Bio-methane potential, Top-down analysis, Bottom-up analysis, Consolidated estimates, Biogas installation, Retrofit, Biogas bundling, Green gases
*Correspondence: [email protected] 2 Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
Background The German energy transition has entered a new phase by the end of the late 2010s. With rising shares of renewable electricity supply the focus has gone beyond decarb
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