A Guide to Operational Research
There is nothing more difficult to take in hand. more perilous to conduct. or more uncertain in its success. than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the o
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A Guide to Operational Research W.E. DUCKWORTH Managing Director. Fulmer Research Institute
A.E. GEAR Associate Professor in Management Studies .. Deputy Dean. Faculty of Commerce, University of Auckland, New Zealand
A.G. LOCKETT Senior Lecturer in Management Science .. Dean. Faculty of Business Administration. Manchester University
LONDON
NEW YORK
CHAPMAN AND HALL
First published 1962 by Methuen & Co. Ltd Third edition 1977 published by Chapman and Hall Ltd, 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE Published in the USA by Chapman and Hall 733 Third Avenue, New York NYlO017 Reprinted 1978, 1982
© 1977 W. E. Duckworth, A. E. Gear, A. G. Lockett Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1977 ISBN-13: 978-0-412-13500-2 DOl: 10.1007/978-94-011-6910-3
e-ISBN-13: 978-94-011-6910-3
This paperback edition is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, re-sold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted, or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Contents
Preface by W.E. Duckworth
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12
page
vii
What operational research is and does Measuring uncertainty Queuing problems Business forecasting Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods Stock and production control models Resource allocation Planning projects Analysing decisions Operational gaming Other operational research techniques Conclusions
16 32 40 61 84 105 127 150 167 180 193
Name Index General Index
201 203
Preface There is nothing more difficult to take in hand. more perilous to conduct. or more uncertain in its success. than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions. and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. Machiavelli. The Prince
When this book was first written in 1959 I was myself a practising operational research worker in charge of a small group at the Glacier Metal Company, concerned with using Operational Research philosophy and techniques to help solve some of the managerial problems inside the company. About that time Operational Research was beginning to attract attention in industrial circles. Many quite large research groups were being founded. The advertisement columns of the Sunday press and certain daily newspapers were full of advertisements for Operational Research practitioners, at then quite attractive salaries. This interest by industrialists in Operational Research appeared to be based upon faith and expectation rather than upon experience. Many of the classical ex
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