A kernel density estimation approach of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone formation and the association with convectiv
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ORIGINAL PAPER
A kernel density estimation approach of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone formation and the association with convective available potential energy and equivalent potential temperature Md Wahiduzzaman1,2 · Alea Yeasmin3 Received: 5 March 2019 / Accepted: 11 November 2019 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2019
Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) is the one of the most devastating weather systems which causes enormous loss of life and property in the coastal regions of North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries. TC modelling can help decision-makers and inhabitants in shoreline zones to take necessary planning and actions in advance. To model TC activity, it is essential to know the factors that effect TC activities. The formation of tropical cyclones in the NIO basin is significantly modulated by Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Equivalent Potential Temperature (EPT). In this paper, a kernel density estimation approach (KDE) has been developed and evaluated to determine the extent of this modulation for the period 1979–2016. The distribution of genesis was defined by the KDE approach and validated by both classical and standard plug-in estimators. Results suggest a strong correlation of TC genesis densities with CAPE in the month of October–November (post-monsoon season) followed by the month of April–May (pre-monsoon season). Findings indicate the potential for predicting TC activities in the NIO well before the TC season.
1 Introduction Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the utmost threatening physical catastrophes to humans, particularly along densely populated coastlines (Alam et al. 2003; Tyagi et al. 2010; Mohapatra et al. 2014; Rajasekhar et al. 2014; Nath et al. 2015). TCs can cause a substantial loss of life and very often cause significant damage to properties (Girishkumar and Ravichandran 2012; Vissa et al. 2013; Balaguru et al. 2014). The North Indian Ocean (NIO) is cyclogenetically a very active zone of the world’s oceans (Mohapatra et al. 2014; Pattanaik and Mohapatra 2016). In the NIO region, Responsible Editor: S. Fiedler. * Md Wahiduzzaman [email protected] 1
Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China
2
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
3
The Satellite Positioning for Atmosphere, Climate and Environment (SPACE) Research Centre, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
there have been numerous devastating losses due to TCs that make landfall (Islam and Peterson 2009; Ng and Chan 2012). These include a number of 1,38,000 people and $10 billion loss by 2008 Nargis cyclone (Webster 2008; Lin et al. 2009; Alam and Collins 2010). Also, the aspects of bypassing systems for example cyclonic wind and heavy rain (Chand and Walsh 2012) cause huge loss to life and property. Aside from the clear costs to human life, this is also a massive financial risk to insurance and reinsurance industries (
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