A multi-agent-based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures
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A multi‑agent‑based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures Kerim Koc1 · Zeynep Işık1 Received: 17 July 2019 / Accepted: 25 July 2020 / Published online: 10 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Consequences of urban floods increased and diversified in terms of social, economical and environmental effects, due to the dense and unplanned urbanization in areas at risk of flooding. Reducing the potential damage of flood is one of the most effective and sustainable reduction strategies of flood risks through adopting adequate urban flood risk mitigation measures (UFRM). The main objective of this study is to ascertain urban floods and develop a model identifying UFRM in accordance with their importance in reducing the effects of floods by employing the concept of multi-agent systems. Social, economical and environmental-based agents were modelled in the agent environment to consider the three dimensions of sustainability in the proposed model. Thirteen negotiation strategies were developed for the agents to negotiate with each other. An illustrative case study was then performed to test the proposed model features, and the results were thoroughly analysed. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to specify the most sensitive strategies over the changing fuzziness level of agents. It was observed that the best strategy differs with respect to short-, medium- and long-term gains significantly, which, in turn, lead to alterations in the list of UFRM. This could provide different risk mitigation plans for different regions with their changing resources. In summary, this study provides an innovative multi-agent-based model that can be performed to specify the most urgent UFRM which can be used by disaster coordination and management authorities as a decision-making input. Keywords Urban flood · Risk mitigation measures · Flood risk factors · Flood risk governance · Multi-agent-based model
1 Introduction Dense and unplanned urbanization as well as changes in land use and climate exacerbated the severity and the frequency of floods all around the world (Hammond et al. 2015; Miguez and Veról 2017; Bertilsson et al. 2018). Urban areas in particular suffer from high * Zeynep Işık [email protected] Kerim Koc [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, Istanbul 34220, Turkey
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Natural Hazards (2020) 104:1079–1110
flood risk due to high population density, intensity of economic activities and massive infrastructure and property values (Pelling 2003; Kubal et al. 2009). Flood risk management (FRM) plays a vital role in guiding government authorities in making adequate decisions to mitigate adverse effects of floods (Li et al. 2012). With the variety of impacts of flood on social systems, economic activity, public infrastructure and ecosystem, integrated flood risk management (IFRM) and sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) approaches will together ease to reduce urban flood risks. IFRM was characterized by Hal
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