A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment
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A novel agent‑based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment Zhenqiang Wang1 · Gaofeng Jia1 Received: 29 March 2020 / Accepted: 17 October 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon. Keywords Agent-based model · Tsunami evacuation · Risk assessment · Seismic damage · Transportation network · Pedestrian–vehicle interaction
* Gaofeng Jia [email protected] 1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction An earthquake-induced tsunami can damage infrastructure, injure, or even kill people. Evacuation to safety zones is an effective way to save lives from tsunami strikes due to the short time for the tsunami to arrive after the earthquake, especially for near-field tsunami tsunamis (Katada and Kuwasawa 2006; Wang et al. 2016; Park et al. 2017). An appropriate evacuation plan is important to support eff
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