Tsunami risk assessment: economic, environmental and social dimensions
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Tsunami risk assessment: economic, environmental and social dimensions Cuneyt Yavuz1 · Elcin Kentel2 · Mustafa M. Aral3 Received: 15 August 2018 / Accepted: 6 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract In this study, we present a novel methodology that may be used to analyze tsunami risk along coastal regions. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the Eastern Mediterranean coast. Economic, social and environmental dimensions of risk are calculated and aggregated to obtain the overall risk maps for a number of elements at risk (EaR) that are identified from seven countries located along the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. Historical earthquakes that are recorded in the region during the period 1900–2013 are used as data, and probabilistic tsunami modeling is carried out using Monte Carlo analysis. Based on historical data, randomly generated earthquakes are simulated, and wave propagation analysis is performed using NAMI-DANCE software. Inundation depth–damage analysis and exceedance probabilities of tsunami inundations are used to evaluate social and economic risks while the environmental risk is calculated using a binary approach. The overall risk map is constructed in the geographic information system environment. Cairo Agricultural Area in Egypt and Fethiye City in Turkey are identified as high-risk EaR in the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. The new risk assessment methodology may be utilized in coastal regions of the world, and the results obtained for the Eastern Mediterranean may be effectively used in developing preventive measures and disaster management strategies for tsunamis that may develop the region. Keywords Geographic information systems (GIS) · Monte Carlo analysis · Risk assessment · Tsunami modeling
* Cuneyt Yavuz [email protected] Elcin Kentel [email protected] Mustafa M. Aral [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, Sirnak University, 73000 Sirnak, Turkey
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, 06800 Ankara, Turkey
3
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Tsunamis have the potential to cause significant economic destruction on critical infrastructures, social devastation due to mass casualty, and environmental adverse effects such as erosion, sediment accumulation and inundation. During the past two decades, several nations have encountered tsunami events with devastating outcomes, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami (Ozel et al. 2011; WHO 2012). The area of East Mediterranean Sea is also characterized by very high seismicity (Papadopoulos et al. 2007). Many large, shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes, which generated strong tsunamis that propagated at large distances in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, have been reported in the historical past (Papadopoulos and Chalkis 1984; Soloviev et al. 1997; Papadopoulos 2000). Dur
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