A novel prognostic model predicting the long-term cancer-specific survival for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cel
- PDF / 1,579,535 Bytes
- 10 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 18 Downloads / 150 Views
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
A novel prognostic model predicting the long-term cancer-specific survival for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma Xin Tang1,2, Tong Pang1, Wei-feng Yan1, Wen-lei Qian1, You-ling Gong2*† and Zhi-gang Yang1*†
Abstract Background: Hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HSCC) is a rare type of head and neck cancer with poor prognosis. However, till now, there is still no model predicting the survival outcomes for HSCC patients. We aim to develop a novel nomogram predicting the long-term cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with HSCC and establish a prognostic classification system. Methods: Data of 2021 eligible HSCC patients were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database between 2010 and 2015. We randomly split the whole cases (ratio: 7:3) into the training and the validation cohort. Cox regression as well as the Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) COX were used to select significant predictors of CSS. Based on the beta-value of these predictors, a novel nomogram was built. The concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve and the decision curve analysis (DCA) were utilized for the model validation and evaluation using the validation cohort. Results: In total, cancer-specific death occurred in 974/2021 (48.2%) patients. LASSO COX indicated that age, race, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy are significant prognosticators of CSS. A prognostic model based on these factors was constructed and visually presented as nomogram. The C-index of the model was 0.764, indicating great predictive accuracy. Additionally, DCA and calibration curves also demonstrated that the nomogram had good clinical effect and satisfactory consistency between the predictive CSS and actual observation. Furthermore, we developed a prognostic classification system that divides HSCC patients into three groups with different prognosis. The median CSS for HSCC patients in the favorable, intermediate and poor prognosis group was not reached, 39.0-Mo and 10.0-Mo, respectively (p < 0.001). (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected] † You-ling Gong and Zhi-gang Yang contributed equally to this work. 2 Department of Thoracic Oncology and State Key Laboratory of Biotherapy, Cancer Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37# Guo Xue Xiang, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, China 1 Department of Radiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37# Guo Xue Xiang, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, China © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licen
Data Loading...
