A PDEM-based perspective to engineering reliability: From structures to lifeline networks
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A PDEM-based perspective to engineering reliability: From structures to lifeline networks Jie LI* School of Civil Engineering & State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China *
Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
© Higher Education Press 2020
ABSTRACT Research of reliability of engineering structures has experienced a developing history for more than 90 years. However, the problem of how to resolve the global reliability of structural systems still remains open, especially the problem of the combinatorial explosion and the challenge of correlation between failure modes. Benefiting from the research of probability density evolution theory in recent years, the physics-based system reliability researches open a new way for bypassing this dilemma. The present paper introduces the theoretical foundation of probability density evolution method in view of a broad background, whereby a probability density evolution equation for probability dissipative system is deduced. In conjunction of physical equations and structural failure criteria, a general engineering reliability analysis frame is then presented. For illustrative purposes, several cases are studied which prove the value of the proposed engineering reliability analysis method. KEYWORDS
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PDEM, reliability, structure, lifeline networks
Introduction
Reliability based analysis and design of engineering structures and infrastructure systems underlies the safety of engineering systems. The pioneering investigations upon the uncertainty in the objective world and using the probability theory to deal with the engineering reliability assessment could be dated back to the early 20th century [1–3]. Owing to the outstanding contributions of Freudenthal [4], Cornell [5], Lind [6], and Ang and Tang [7], the engineering design paradigm based on the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method was built up during 1960s to 1970s. This paradigm was later developed rapidly and served as the foundations of worldwide national design provisions, which facilitated the establishment of the second-generation design theory of engineering structures [8]. In fact, the crucial point of the second-generation design theory of engineering structures is to implement the approximate reliability analysis and design on the level of structural components based on the decomposition methodologies. This treatment consequently brings Article history: Received Apr 2, 2019; Accepted Aug 19, 2019
forward the basic contradictions inherent in the structural design theory [8]. To resolve these contradictions, great efforts have been made, especially on the researches on structural global reliability which can be traced back to the middle of 1960s. For example, in 1966, Freudenthal et al. [9] presented the upper bound of failure probability of series systems. In 1975, Ang et al. [10] developed the probabilistic network method for the analysis of structural system reliability. In 1979, Ditlevsen [11] proposed the formulation of na
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