A probabilistic-deterministic analysis of human health risk related to the exposure to potentially toxic elements in gro
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ORIGINAL PAPER
A probabilistic-deterministic analysis of human health risk related to the exposure to potentially toxic elements in groundwater of Urmia coastal aquifer (NW of Iran) with a special focus on arsenic speciation and temporal variation Nassim Sohrabi1,2 • Nasrollah Kalantari2 • Vahab Amiri3 Prosun Bhattacharya6,7 • Arslan Ahmad7,8,9
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Narottam Saha4 • Ronny Berndtsson5
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Accepted: 7 November 2020 Ó Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The human exposure to groundwater contamination with toxic elements is a worldwide concern. In this study, multivariate statistics coupled with probabilistic and deterministic risk estimation approaches were applied to 173 groundwater samples of Urmia aquifer (UA) to evaluate human health risks in relation to the consumption of groundwater contaminated with toxic elements. The concentrations of aluminum (Al), barium (Ba), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn) were below their corresponding maximum permissible levels as advised by the WHO, USEPA, and Iranian guidelines. However, arsenic (As), lead (Pb), iron (Fe), and selenium (Se) were elevated at some locations. Monte Carlo simulation-based probabilistic risk estimation suggested ingestion as the dominant pathway for water-hosted element exposure. Mean values of hazard index estimated for As exposure from combined ingestion and dermal contact pathways exceeded the safe level of 1.0 for both adults and children, indicated potential non-carcinogenic health risks. The total cancer risk induced by groundwater As exceeded the acceptable limit of 1 9 10–4. Sensitivity analysis highlighted exposure duration, element concentration in water, and average time as the most significant variables causing the probable health risks. Speciation modeling using PHREEQC highlighted the occurrence of As(V) and As(III) in groundwater of the UA. Reductive dissolution of Fe(III) (oxyhydr)oxides and clay minerals was identified as the main controlling mechanism of As mobilization. This communication emphasizes the need for appropriate approaches in mitigating toxic element contamination of water resources in coastal parts of the UA to safeguard public health from carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks. Keywords Groundwater pollution Carcinogenic health risk Deterministic and probabilistic estimation Monte Carlo simulation Arsenic speciation
1 Introduction Chemical elements enter groundwater through natural (volcanic activity and weathering of crustal materials) and anthropogenic processes (Mukherjee et al. 2014;
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01934-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. & Vahab Amiri [email protected]; [email protected]
Chowdhury et al. 2016; Sohrabi et al. 2017). Increasing anthropogenic activities (e.g., land use changes, unplanned industrialization and urbanization, disposal of untreated industrial, domestic, agricultural, and min
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