A robust relationship between multidecadal global warming rate variations and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
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A robust relationship between multidecadal global warming rate variations and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Zhiyu Li1,2 · Wenjun Zhang1 · Fei‑Fei Jin3 · Malte F. Stuecker4 · Cheng Sun5 · Aaron F. Z. Levine6,7 · Haiming Xu1 · Chao Liu1 Received: 17 January 2020 / Accepted: 6 July 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract How much and fast the Earth is warming in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations is one of the fundamental questions in climate science. Here we investigate the role that different modes of climate variability play in modulating the temperature response. We show evidence for a robust statistical relationship between global warming rate variations and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) across multiple observational datasets since 1850. The correlation between AMV and the global warming rate is maximized—with a correlation coefficient of about − 0.8—at ~ 10 to 20 years lead-time. In contrast, such a relation between global warming rate and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is far less coherent, showing negative correlation before the 1920s and positive correlation after that. Similar statistical relationships between global warming rate variations and the AMV/IPO can also be seen in the majority of the models from the Phase 5 of Coupled Models Inter-comparison Project. Further, a targeted model experiment is conducted to demonstrate the dominant control of the AMV on the unforced fraction of the global warming rate (compared to the IPO). Keywords Global warming rate · AMV · IPO · Multidecadal timescale
1 Introduction
* Wenjun Zhang [email protected] 1
CIC‑FEMD/ILCEC, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2
Guizhou Meteorological Observatory, Guizhou Meteorological Bureau, Guiyang, China
3
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
4
Department of Oceanography and International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
5
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
6
NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA, USA
7
Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Observations show that global mean atmospheric surface temperature (GMST) have increased by ~ 0.85 [0.65–1.06] °C since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (1880–2012) due to steadily increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas concentrations (IPCC 2013). However, the GMST has not increased at a constant rate over this period due to a combination of time-varying forcing and internal variability (e.g., Wu et al. 2007; Tung and Zhou 2015; Wei et al. 2019). Recently, a transient slowdown of the warming rate, which was coined “global warming hiatus”, occurred during the first decade of the 21st century. It ha
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