Adjusting sowing date and cultivar shift improve maize adaption to climate change in China
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Adjusting sowing date and cultivar shift improve maize adaption to climate change in China Zunfu Lv 1,2 & Feifei Li 1 & Guoquan Lu 1 Received: 7 September 2018 / Accepted: 22 March 2019/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract This study investigates the impact of climate change on spring and summer maize (Zea mays) yield and evaluates several adaptation measures to overcome the negative impact of climate change on maize production in China. The results showed that the grain-filling duration of maize would be shortened 6–15 days in the future as a result of climate change. Thus, potential maize yield would decrease by 2–32%, and rainfed maize yield would decrease by 0–24% during 2010–2099 relative to 1976–2005. In response to climate change, adaptive measures should be taken to overcome its projected impact. The adoption of new cultivars while maintaining the same pre-flowering and post-flowering duration in the future as in the present would help to improve potential maize yield by 50–61% in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) and would be a better choice for high yields in the future. The cultivars that would maintain the same post-flowering duration in the future as in the present would be a better choice than the cultivars that would maintain the pre-flowing periods for summer maize in China. Adjusting sowing dates would be another important way to extend post-flowering periods and further improve maize yield. If the maize cultivar currently used was adopted, delaying the sowing date would improve the potential maize yield by 2–25%. If future maize cultivars that maintained the growing period even as warmer temperatures accelerate phenological development were adopted, delaying the sowing date would improve the potential maize yield by 0–8.9%. The interactive effect of sowing and cultivars was quantified. Based on the findings of this study, future maize cultivars maintaining the growing period were adopted, and delaying the sowing date could still improve potential maize yield worldwide. Two regional adaptation strategies to climate change could offset the potential reduction of maize production worldwide, which would provide farmers and policy-makers with explicit guidance. Keywords Maize . Yield . Climate change . Adaption
* Zunfu Lv [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
1 Introduction Global maize (Zea mays) yields were forecast to decline in response to increasing temperatures (Butler and Huybers 2012). Rainfed maize yield was projected to decline more than 10% in over 90% of the regions of the world with a hypothetical 2 °C rise in temperature (Ruane et al. 2017). Adaptation is an important factor that will mitigate the impacts of climate change on food production in the future. Thus, adaptation strategies should be evaluated for managing climate risk (Lin et al. 2014). Maize is the second primary crop in China. Much of the maize production is concentrated in long and narrow regions sloping fro
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