Analysis of the effects of climate, host resistance, maturity and sowing date on wheat stem rust epidemics
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Analysis of the effects of climate, host resistance, maturity and sowing date on wheat stem rust epidemics Bita Naseri 1
&
Peyman Sabeti 1
Received: 11 August 2020 / Accepted: 17 November 2020 # Società Italiana di Patologia Vegetale (S.I.Pa.V.) 2020
Abstract Under appropriate environmental conditions, stem rust (caused by Puccinia graminis Pers.:Pers. f. sp. tritici) is a destructive disease of wheat crops worldwide. Although fungicide application and host genotype resistance are the most commonly used methods to control wheat stem rust, efficient agronomic methods are needed to lower disease management expenses and improve sustainability of wheat production. However, an understanding of highly effective agronomic practices to control stem rust is still lacking. From 2013 to 2017, 282 wheat-stem-rust progress curves were studied using three agronomic, three climatic, and two disease variables at plot scale in Kermanshah province, Iran. Cultivar, sowing date, and disease-assessment time significantly affected stem rust severity. From principal component analysis (PCA), three principal components explained 79% of data variance. According to PCA and multiple regression model, AUDPC corresponded with disease-onset and maturity date, mean minimum temperature and number of rainy days over designated spring months, number of days with minimum temperature within 5–20 °C and maximum relative humidity above 60%, resistance index, and sowing date. These new findings suggested improvement of current predicting models by involving dates of maturation and sowing, and wheat resistance besides rainfalltemperature-wetness variables for more effective, economic and sustainable management of stem rust epidemics. Keywords Black rust . Cereals . Multivariate analysis . Weather
Introduction Stem rust, caused by Puccinia graminis Pers.:Pers. f. sp. tritici, has been known as a highly destructive disease of wheat worldwide when it becomes epidemic. It is documented that 90% of wheat crops in the world are susceptible to the most destructive race of the pathogen, Ug99, which causes severe crop damages (Singh et al. 2011). Wheat crops appearing healthy 3 weeks before harvest can be damaged by rapid development of severe stem rust epidemics. Severe infection of stems can result in interrupting nutrient flow to heads, shriveling grain and lodging plants (Roelfs et al. 1992). Under appropriate climatic conditions, severe epidemics of stem rust develop in Kermanshah province as a main wheat producer in Iran. A better understanding of spatial and * Bita Naseri [email protected] 1
Plant Protection Research Department, Kermanshah Agricultural & Natural Resources Research & Education Center, AREEO, Kermanshah, Iran
temporal variability in the structure of wheat rust development must assist with more influential and sustainable disease management (Naseri and Sharifi 2019). For instance, a combination of earlier disease onset, later sowing and maturation, lower cultivar resistance, warmer winter, further cooler and moisty
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