An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Down
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• Original Paper •
An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization Mingkui LI1,2, Shaoqing ZHANG*1,2,3,4, Lixin WU1,2, Xiaopei LIN1,2, Ping CHANG3,5, Gohkan DANABASOGLU3,6, Zhiqiang WEI2, Xiaolin YU1,2, Huiqin HU2, Xiaohui MA1,2, Weiwei MA1, Haoran ZHAO1, Dongning JIA2, Xin LIU7, Kai MAO1, Youwei MA4, Yingjing JIANG4, Xue WANG1, Guangliang LIU7, and Yuhu CHEN2 1Key
Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, MOE, Institute for Advanced Ocean Study, College of Ocean and Atmosphere, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (DOMES), Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China 2Pilot
3International
National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao 266237, China
Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Model and Prediction(iHESP), Qingdao 266237, China
4College
of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
5Department
of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, USA
6National
Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80301, USA
7National
Supercomputing Jinan Center, Jinan 250101, China
(Received 17 October 2019; revised 21 May 2020; accepted 4 June 2020) ABSTRACT Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging. It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks, with aid from coherent coupled initialization. This study uses three sets of highresolution regional coupled models (RCMs) covering the Asia−Pacific (AP) region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific. The APRCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting−Regional Ocean Model System (WRF-ROMS): 27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS, and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS. In this study, a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis. Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved, the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis, which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics, thus resolving better air−sea and air−land interactions. Key words: high-resolution coupled model, tropical cyclone formation, predictability, TC genesis, coupled data assimilation Citation: Li, M. K., and Coauthors, 2020: An examination of the predictability of tropical cyclone genesis in highresolution coupled models with dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation initialization. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37(9), 939−950, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9220-9. Article Highlights:
• Three sets of high-resolution coupled model
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