An ice jam flood hazard assessment of a lowland river and its terminus inland delta
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An ice jam flood hazard assessment of a lowland river and its terminus inland delta Brandon Williams1 · Apurba Das2 · Bin Luo3 · Karl‑Erich Lindenschmidt2 Received: 23 July 2019 / Accepted: 7 November 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Flooding is one of the most frequent and most costly natural disasters that occur throughout Canada, and although there is ongoing work to update and improve flood hazard assessments and mapping of high flood risk rivers throughout the country, most studies only delve into open water flooding. However, many rivers in Canada experience higher peak water levels due to ice jamming, resulting in severe flooding of surrounding areas. Hence, there is an urgency to expand current flood hazard assessments to include ice jam flooding for better flood management practices. One area that is often plagued with ice jam flooding is the lowest reach of Manitoba’s Red River. The Lower Red River is a low-lying river with a terminus inland delta where water levels are governed by Lake Winnipeg. Ice jam floods often divert water into the lower Red River’s floodplain that is continually being encroached by development. RIVICE, Environment Canada’s one-dimensional ice hydraulic model, was set up within a Monte Carlo framework to simulate an envelope of backwater level profiles that result from ice jams within the study site. Non-exceedance probability profiles were created from the envelope of backwater level profiles to assess ice jam flood hazard. Keywords Ice jam · Flooding · Hazard assessment
* Karl‑Erich Lindenschmidt karl‑[email protected] Brandon Williams [email protected] Apurba Das [email protected] Bin Luo [email protected] 1
Catterall and Wright Consulting Engineers, Saskatoon, SK S7H 0S5, Canada
2
Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7N 3H5, Canada
3
Manitoba Infrastructure, 2nd Floor–280 Broadway, Winnipeg, MB R3C 0R8, Canada
13
Vol.:(0123456789)
Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Flood hazard is the probability that a flood event will occur paired with the intensity of said flood event. In a flood hazard assessment, the probability of occurrence is quantified as the return period, whereas the intensity of a flood is measured by both the depth and extent of the floodwaters. This differs from a flood risk assessment in the sense that flood risk considers both hazard and consequence of damage to assess long-term annual expected costs. For this study, the focus will only be on an ice jam flood hazard assessment in the form of non-exceedance probability profiles, where no risk or vulnerability is considered. The Lower Red River between the City of Winnipeg and Lake Winnipeg was selected because the area is often afflicted with flooding caused by ice jams. The primary step in any flood hazard assessment is developing stage frequency distributions for the river in question to show the relationship between floodwater levels and the probability of occurrence, but this becomes more difficult when ice
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