Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River
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Large‑scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River A. Curran1,2 · Karin De Bruijn2 · Alessio Domeneghetti3 · Federica Bianchi3 · M. Kok1 · Sergiy Vorogushyn4 · Attilio Castellarin3 Received: 15 July 2019 / Accepted: 24 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Reliable hazard analysis is crucial in the flood risk management of river basins. For the floodplains of large, developed rivers, flood hazard analysis often needs to account for the complex hydrology of multiple tributaries and the potential failure of dikes. Estimating this hazard using deterministic methods ignores two major aspects of large-scale risk analysis: the spatial–temporal variability of extreme events caused by tributaries, and the uncertainty of dike breach development. Innovative stochastic methods are here developed to account for these uncertainties and are applied to the Po River in Italy. The effects of using these stochastic methods are compared against deterministic equivalents, and the methods are combined to demonstrate applications for an overall stochastic hazard analysis. The results show these uncertainties can impact extreme event water levels by more than 2 m at certain channel locations, and also affect inundation and breaching patterns. The combined hazard analysis allows for probability distributions of flood hazard and dike failure to be developed, which can be used to assess future flood risk management measures. Keywords Flood risk · Hazard analysis · Dike breaching · Copula · System behaviour · Failure probabilities
1 Introduction 1.1 Flood risk analysis and research objective Each year flooding causes the most damage of any natural disaster (Jongman et al. 2012) and, as such, many Flood Risk Management (FRM) strategies employ a risk-based * A. Curran [email protected] 1
Civil Engineering Faculty, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands
2
Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands
3
University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
4
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Hydrology Section, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Natural Hazards
approach (Voortman et al. 2009), where risk is the combination of exposure and hazard (with its associated probability). In analysing the hazard of large river systems, potential interactions between sub-catchments, dikes and other connected components become more relevant (Vorogushyn et al. 2017), and often require system wide models simulated using stochastic approaches. Hydraulic models used to analyse flood hazard and other hydraulic aspects of protected river systems have been developed for the Elbe (Merz et al. 2016), the Rhine (Hegnauer et al. 2014), the Mississippi (Remo et al. 2012), and the Po River in Italy (Castellarin et al. 2011), amongst others. Such models are often used to calculate the location-specific hydraulic load associated with a given probability or return period (Vogel and Castellarin, 2017). Hydrological boundary conditions provide the characteristics of the extreme event being modelled (e.g. a 1/200 year event
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