Analyzing the economic viability of a large-scale integrated model of municipal solid waste: a study case for the most i
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ARTICLE
Analyzing the economic viability of a large‑scale integrated model of municipal solid waste: a study case for the most important Brazilian economic region Octavio Pimenta Reis Neto1 Received: 28 March 2020 / Revised: 12 June 2020 / Accepted: 11 July 2020 / Published online: 3 September 2020 © Zhejiang University Press 2020
Abstract Despite the National Policy for Solid Waste (PNRS) in 2010, nothing has changed to waste disposal in Brazil. Planned to reach 100% of all Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) collected and treated in landfills by Aug. 2nd, 2014, until nowadays, 42% of this total remains in dumps. Even the most important national economic region treating its urban waste in landfills, what it has is no more than 4% of recycling and its landfills reaching the exhaustion. Building other ones is getting harder year by year, due to water reservoirs around the region, high freight costs, waste disposal and the severe control of emissions associated with its logistics. This article comes to break the paradigm of investment and profitability proposing an alternative to the land-use, achieving higher rates of recovering. The economic viability, carried out through well-known financial variables and Monte Carlo analysis, has taken into account proven local waste characteristics and market prices for recyclables and energy without subsidies. Even considered a proposal highly intensive in capital and people, the revenues from the sales would be enough to guarantee the viability of 100% equity with IRR of 33.7% and ROI of 24.5% per year within the confidence of 99%. Graphic abstract IN
PROCESS FLOW Frac on "Raw Materials" 43% Organic Paper Plas c Mechanical Metal 24% (Recycling) Glass Other (e.g., electronics) Dirty plas cs WtE 33% Tex le, dirty papers, city cleaning Urban Waste Service All Processes 100% All Recyclables Process Biological
MSW
TOTAL
100%
100%
OUT Frac on 43% 8% 8% 1% 1% 6% 24% 9% 100%
PRODUCTS/SERVICE Fer lizer
Recyclables
Electricity Treatment All Revenues
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SUMMARY
VARIABLE
100% EQUITY
80% of BNDES’s FUNDING
IRR NPV PAYBACK ROI ROE
33.7% USD 4.3 billion 6.6 years 24.5% per year 24.5% per year
116.3 USD 5.8 billion 6.9 years 22.9% per year 95.3% per year
Summary: Economics from a Large-Scale model of Municipal Solid Waste in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo
Keywords Solid waste · Sorting · Recycling · Waste-to-energy · Metropolitan Region of São Paulo · Energy recovering * Octavio Pimenta Reis Neto [email protected] 1
Mechanical Engineering Faculty at State University of Campinas (PDSE/FEM/UNICAMP), Av. Mofarrej, 275‑Apto 212 B1, São Paulo, SP CEP 05311‑000, Brazil
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Introduction Scenario at a glance The Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP) is the biggest wealth generation center in Brazil. This macro-region holds a large part of the national private capital with the most important industrial complexes, commercial and financial headquarters installed, and responsible for the Brazilian economic activity. It represents 56%
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