Application of GAINS model for assessing selected air pollutants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, Pakistan
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Application of GAINS model for assessing selected air pollutants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, Pakistan Aisha Khan 1 & Sheikh Saeed Ahmad 1 Received: 16 August 2017 / Accepted: 16 April 2018 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2018
Abstract Pakistan is a developing country existing geographically at a pivoted location between two of the world’s largest pollution emitting countries (China and India) which adds to the severity of environmental issues faced by the country. These concerns include air pollution, climate change, and extreme weather situations prevailing in Pakistan. This increasing air pollution is deteriorating the health, threatening the food security and adding up its share to the already existing global warming. The initial step in devising a wide ranging, multifaceted, economically feasible, and sustainable solution to deal with the severity of this issue is the quantification of the air pollution and greenhouse gas emission in Pakistan. The GAINS model is one of the most comprehensive tools, dealing with the air pollutants and greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol. This study has utilized this model to analyze the source-based anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants (NH3 and SO2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and greenhouse gases (CH4 and CO2), their impacts and abatement cost, for the duration of 1990–2030, in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan regions of Pakistan. An overall increasing trend was observed during 1990–2030 for (a) air pollutants: NH3 (223.52–568.87kT/Y); SO2 (50.52–332.95kT/Y), (b) VOCs (121.76–246.81kT/Y), and (c) greenhouse gases: CO2 (7.83–62.45MT/Y) and CH4 (1120-2314kT/Y). The emission inventories created for all greenhouse gases together estimated the increase of 42.37 to 138.57 MTCO2eq. for greenhouse gases over the time duration of 1990–2030. Keywords GAINS model . Air pollutants . GHG emissions . VOC’s
Introduction Pakistan has become extremely susceptible to climate change caused by air pollution and greenhouse gases mainly due to its geographical location (National Economic, Environment and Development Study [NEEDS] 2011). In Pakistan, greenhouse gases emissions per gross domestic product (GDP) is the highest in South Asia, even from India, which is one of the major contributors of GHGs. Rapidly growing economy is the major cause of most of the environmental related challenges and issues faced by Pakistan in recent times (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2014; Ministry of Finance, 2010). Air pollution is considered to be the reason behind more than 22,600 deaths per year in Pakistan. More than 800 children under the age of 5 years are also included in this figure * Sheikh Saeed Ahmad [email protected] 1
Department of Environmental Sciences, Fatima Jinnah Women University, The Mall Rawalpindi 46000, Pakistan
(World Bank 2018; World Bank 2006). With 8000 cases of chronic bronchitis, the hospital admissions per annum due to outdoor air pollution is more than 80,000. Five million cases of lower respiratory diseases are reported among
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