Flood risk perception and its determinants among rural households in two communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
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Flood risk perception and its determinants among rural households in two communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan Farman Ullah1,2 · Shahab E. Saqib3 · Mokbul Morshed Ahmad4 · Mahmoud Ali Fadlallah2 Received: 9 January 2020 / Accepted: 7 July 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Risk perception plays a vital part in flood risk management and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aims at first to measure the risk perception of the vulnerable households in the rural areas of Pakistan and, second, to assess the determinants and to estimate their impacts on risk perception among different groups of households. Data were collected through questionnaire survey from 382 respondents in two districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. Risk perception was measured through a Likert scale for a set of indicators, and the composite index was calculated. Moreover, univariate and multivariate logistic models were applied to explore the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Results of risk perception show that 50.52% of the respondents perceived a high risk of floods in the study area. Results of regression models show that the age group 40–50 years was less likely to perceive a high risk of floods. Respondents with flood experience, education (higher secondary and above), household location (near the bank of streams) and household distance from the river (≤ 500) were more likely to perceive high floods risk. Furthermore, respondents in the riverine flood-prone areas perceived high flood risk than respondents in the flash flood-prone regions. The study contributes in terms of useful information about the risk perception of floods and the determinants of flood risk perception in rural areas. These findings can help the provincial disaster management authorities and local disaster management units in understanding flood risk and implementing relevant interventions at the local level that can be used in adaptation to floods and other climate-induced disasters. Keywords Climate-induced disasters · Riverine floods · Flash floods · Rural flooding · Risk perception · Determinants
* Farman Ullah [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Floods have affected more people around the world than any other hazard in the twentyfirst century (Ritchie and Roser 2019). In fact, more than 30% of the observed natural hazards in the last hundred years have been associated with floods (Guha-Sapir et al. 2014). Along with climate change, water-related disasters are an increasingly recurrent phenomenon in Pakistan. Globally, Pakistan is ranked eighth out of the ten worst climate change affected countries in the recent statistics by the Climate Risk Index (Eckstein et al. 2019). Additionally, the country is ranked 18th out of 191 countries globally by the Index for Risk Management—INFORM 2020, in terms of its Global Risk Index (IASC 2019). Between 1950 and 2011, Pakistan suffered from 21 major floods wit
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