Appraising trends and forecasting of hydroclimatic variables in the north and northeast regions of Bangladesh
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Appraising trends and forecasting of hydroclimatic variables in the north and northeast regions of Bangladesh Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam 1
&
Md. Rezaul Karim 1 & Md Anarul Haque Mondol 2,3
Received: 9 March 2020 / Accepted: 23 September 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Appraising trend and forecasting of seasonal and annual rainfall, temperature, river water discharge, and groundwater level are crucial for local water resource practices and designing agricultural crop production. However, the spatiotemporal trends of these hydroclimatic variables remain uncertain under the changing climate at the regional scale. Therefore, we analyzed hydroclimatic variable trends in the north and northeast regions of Bangladesh for 38 years (1980–2017) using a set of parametric and nonparametric techniques and forecasted by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Based on detrended fluctuation analysis, long-range associations of the hydroclimatic variables suggested that these variables will retain their current trend line in the forthcoming period. Annual temperature and river water discharge exhibited an increasing linear trend of 0.014 °C and 0.61 m3 s−1 per year, while annual rainfall demonstrated a declining linear trend of − 0.87 mm and resultant in an annual water level decrease of − 0.03 m per year. Seasonal maximum trends were observed for rainfall in the winter (− 2.25 mm), the temperature in monsoon (0.03 °C) and water discharge in post-monsoon (10.7 m3 s−1), and water level in postmonsoon (− 0.54 m) per year. The ARIMA model forecasted that the temperature would be increased by 0.14 °C/decade and water discharge will be 8.75 m3 s−1/decade, while rainfall and water level will be decreased by 90 mm/decade and 1.24 m/decade respectively for the period 2018–2027. The results found from this research can be a guideline for regional water practices and planning cropping systems in the region.
1 Introduction Designing for regional water resource projects and agricultural cropping systems based on long-term hydroclimatic datasets is crucial to detect hydroclimatic trends of a catchment region (Chen et al. 2007; Miller and Piechota 2008; Forootan 2019). The hydroclimatic variables associated with both hydrologic and Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03411-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam [email protected] * Md Anarul Haque Mondol [email protected] 1
Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur 5400, Bangladesh
2
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
3
Department of Geography and Environment, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh
climatic techniques accelerate precisely predicting water resources particularly in humid to sub-humid regions (Islam et al. 2019; Salam and Islam 2020). Appraisal of regional climatic
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