Assessing drought conditions through temporal pattern, spatial characteristic and operational accuracy indicated by SPI
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Assessing drought conditions through temporal pattern, spatial characteristic and operational accuracy indicated by SPI and SPEI: case analysis for Peninsular Malaysia K. F. Fung1 · Y. F. Huang1 · C. H. Koo1 Received: 5 December 2019 / Accepted: 14 May 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract A strong understanding of severe drought conditions is important for its mitigation and damage alleviation. Given the Peninsular Malaysia’s drought vulnerability and its progressively increasing temperatures in the future, this study assessed the significance of temperature for the drought formation through temporal pattern, spatial characteristic and operational accuracy indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the timescales of 1-, 3- and 6-month. Temporal analyses of drought frequency and fluctuations of the SPI and SPEI showed similar changes in moisture responsiveness over the increasing timescales. However, in terms of the number of dry months, the two indices showed different trends, consequential of the influence of temperature in the SPEI. The interchangeability of the two indices was confirmed through spatial variation analysis of drought frequency, mean drought duration, mean drought severity and mean drought peak. From an occurrence, duration and onset detection accuracy consideration, the SPI is better for the 1-month short-term drought, while the SPEI is better for the 3-month mid-term and 6-month longterm droughts. This is a result of the increased significance of temperature in drought formations. Further evaluations on drought severity also showed that the SPEI had better description of the long-term drought over Peninsular Malaysia during the 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 El-Nino drought events. Keywords Drought index · Temporal and spatial analysis · Drought frequency · Drought duration · Drought severity · Drought peak
1 Introduction The main environmental problem in the Peninsular Malaysia that will most likely affect the country during the twenty-first century is water scarcity or technically defined as a drought. Conceptually, drought is defined as the exceptional shortage of precipitation, * Y. F. Huang [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, Lee Kong Chian Faculty of Engineering and Science, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Jalan Sg. Long, Bandar Sg. Long, 43000 Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia
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which will then affect the water sufficiency to meet the demands for either environment or human activities (Wilhite et al. 2014). It is important to understand the drought characteristics such as duration and severity so that preparations can be made to reduce or mitigate the damages to the environment and the socio-economy. The operational definition commences with establishing the starting and ending dates as well as severity of drought events (Wilhite and Glantz 1985). Operational drought typically compares the current situation with the historical data over a certain pe
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