Using multiple indexes to analyze temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and drought in Xinjiang, China
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Using multiple indexes to analyze temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and drought in Xinjiang, China Guoqing Cai 1 & Shujun Chen 1 & Yi Liu 2,3 & Huaiwei Sun 1
&
Changqing Chen 4 & Dongwei Gui 2,3 & Dong Yan 1
Received: 22 January 2019 / Accepted: 12 June 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract There is an urgent need to understand the characteristics of both precipitation and drought in arid regions of China. Different indexes may provide differing results in terms of the detection and estimation of the temporal and spatial extent of droughts. In this study, the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall and drought at 53 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2016 across the Xinjiang region of China were analyzed. Four precipitation-related indexes (precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP), standardized precipitation index (SPI), and long-cycle drought–flood abrupt alternation index (LDFAI)) were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of drought and flood. In addition, the Bayesian method and Pettitt test were used as detection tools to identify changing points in precipitation time series. The study indicated the following: (1) a wetting tendency was evident in recent years and was supported by the upward trend in SPI and inter-decadal variation in summer precipitation; (2) the spatial patterns and tendencies of PCD, PCP, and SPI were markedly different in southern and northern Xinjiang; (3) compared with the Pettitt test, use of the Bayesian method provided data closer to the real drought events; (4) it is suggested that multiple indices be used for detecting precipitation and drought characteristics as use of the SPI may lead to other indexes related to flood and drought risks being ignored. Keywords Precipitation . Drought . Changing points . Xinjiang
1 Introduction Global warming and its impact on human society may lead to both gradual and abrupt changes in the hydrological cycle (Forsee and Ahmad 2011), as well as to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events (Schaer et al. 1996). Accordingly, the intensity, quantity, and mode of precipitation can be impacted by global warming trends. The number of extreme precipitation events increases and expands the scope
* Huaiwei Sun [email protected] 1
School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
2
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
4
Administration of Main stream of Tarim River Basin, Korla 841000, Xinjiang, China
of drought and flood disasters worldwide (Li and Sun 2016; Gao et al. 2006; Giorgi and Lionello 2008). Results from climate models suggest extreme precipitation events are becoming more common (Allan and Soden 2008), and increasing losses due to drought and flood disaste
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