Assessing Sustainable Bioenergy Feedstock Production Potential by Integrated Geospatial Analysis of Land Use and Land Qu

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Assessing Sustainable Bioenergy Feedstock Production Potential by Integrated Geospatial Analysis of Land Use and Land Quality Jenifer L. Wightman 1 & Zia U. Ahmed 1 & Timothy A. Volk 2 & Philip J. Castellano 2 & Christian J. Peters 3 & Stephen D. DeGloria 1 & John M. Duxbury 1 & Peter B. Woodbury 1

# Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Abstract Development of viable bioenergy economies will require large increases in biomass feedstock production. Improved methods are needed to quantify production potential based on land availability, land suitability, biomass yield, and cost. We developed such a method and applied it throughout New York State. While maintaining existing forest and agricultural production, we quantified additional sustainable biomass production potential using geospatial and yield modeling that integrates remotely sensed and survey data for land cover, soil type, climate patterns, and crop yields and then applied multiple sustainability constraints. Nearly 680,000 ha with varying quality was found to be available and suitable for new biomass production. Predicted yields ranged from 7.8 to 18.3 Mg/ha for short-rotation willow and 6.9–16.3 Mg/ha for perennial grasses for a total production potential of 8.2 Tg/ year. Increased forest harvest could produce an additional 4.3 Tg/year of hardwood and 1.6 Tg/year of softwood. In total, an additional 14.2 Tg/year of biomass for bioenergy could be produced while maintaining existing agricultural and forest production. This new biomass, before processing,

Jenifer L. Wightman and Peter B. Woodbury contributed equally to this work. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12155-015-9618-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Peter B. Woodbury [email protected] 1

Bradfield Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA

2

SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA

3

Tufts University, Boston, MA 02110, USA

would contain energy equivalent to 7.4 % of 2012 New York energy use (3.4 % if converted to ethanol). Keywords Biomass . Bioenergy . Biofuel . Sustainability . Switchgrass . Willow . Corn . Maize . NCCPI . Forest biomass . Land use change . GIS . Energy . Perennial . Warm season grass . New York State

Abbreviations DEM Digital elevation model ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute GHG Greenhouse gas GIS Geographic information system K Potassium LULC Land use/land cover Mg/year Megagram/year (assume dry matter unless otherwise stated) MRLC Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics NCCPI National Commodity Crop Productivity Index NY New York N Nitrogen NLCD National Land Cover Database P Phosphate

Introduction Comprehensive analysis of reliable, affordable, and sustainable feedstock production potential is necessary to plan and locate bioenergy production facilities and supply chains while maintaining existing production of food, feed, fiber, and fuel. While biomass production potential has been analyzed at the national scale [1]