Morphometrical analysis of torrential flows-prone catchments in tropical and mountainous terrain of the Colombian Andes
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Morphometrical analysis of torrential flows‑prone catchments in tropical and mountainous terrain of the Colombian Andes by machine learning techniques María Isabel Arango1 · Edier Aristizábal1 · Federico Gómez1 Received: 3 April 2020 / Accepted: 26 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Assessment of susceptibility to torrential flows at the catchment scale is a necessary step for prioritising zones that can be identified by hazard and risk maps. In the Andean region of Colombia, where these phenomena are common and highly destructive, few studies have been carried out on the subject. Considering that the effects of torrential flows will likely increase in the future due to extreme weather events and urbanisation of low prone areas, effective land management plans should include the assessment of susceptibility to this type of event. In this study, machine learning techniques were applied with morphometric parameters of mountainous catchments in the northern Colombian Andes to analyse torrential susceptibility in tropical environments. Several feature selection methods were implemented using statistics to evaluate the relationship between morphometric parameters and torrential susceptibility. The parameters that showed the strongest relationship with torrential catchments were selected for application of machine learning techniques, along with evaluation of performance and prediction ability. The analysis was carried out on morphometric parameters regarding the catchment’s drainage network, basin geometry, drainage texture, and relief characteristics. According to the results, the catchments characteristics related to relief and drainage texture are the most important for the study of torrential susceptibility. Within these groups of predictor parameters, relief ratio and constant of channel maintenance are the highest ranked variables. Although the Melton index shows a good prediction capacity, thresholds proposed in the literature are not valid in the Colombian Andes. Keywords Torrential flows · Susceptibility · Tropical · Andean range · Colombia
* María Isabel Arango [email protected] Edier Aristizábal [email protected] Federico Gómez [email protected] 1
Departamento de Geociencias y Medio Ambiente, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Colombia
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Torrential flows are considered highly destructive phenomena and one of the worst natural hazards of hydrometeorological origin in terms of the number of fatalities and economical loss (Alfieri et al. 2012; Doocy et al. 2013; Jonkman 2005; Marchi et al. 2010). The occurrence of torrential flows is associated with short, high-intensity rainfall in small, and mountainous catchments resulting in a short lead time for people to take actions to avoid or reduce damage to property and risk to life (Koutroulis and Tsanis 2010; Marchi et al. 2010). According to Dittmann (1994), between 1959 and 1991, there were 3934 flood-related deaths in the USA, of which 80–90% were caus
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