Assessment of water resources and crop yield under future climate scenarios: A case study in a Warangal district of Tela
- PDF / 3,153,653 Bytes
- 17 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 53 Downloads / 186 Views
Ó Indian Academy of Sciences (0123456789().,-volV)(0123456789( ).,-volV)
Assessment of water resources and crop yield under future climate scenarios: A case study in a Warangal district of Telangana, India TIRUPATHI CHANAPATHI1, SHASHIDHAR THATIKONDA1,*, VENKATA REDDY KEESARA2 and NAGA SOWJANYA PONGURU2 1 Department 2
of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Hyderabad 502 285, India. National Institute of Technology, Warangal, India. *Corresponding author. e-mail: [email protected] MS received 1 June 2018; revised 14 August 2019; accepted 2 September 2019
In the present study, assessment of the impact of climate change on the availability of water resources and crop yield of Warangal district of Telangana state, India has been carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The importance of bias correction methods in regional forecasts with multiple Regional Climate Models (RCMs) along with projected uncertainties have been emphasized, and regionalization of parameters in ungauged watersheds have been dealt with. SWAT model was run using observed data and then calibrated using observed streamCow of Akeru watershed, Warangal district, India. The R2 and NSE values for calibration (0.72 and 0.84, respectively) and validation periods (0.7 and 0.56, respectively) indicated a significant correlation between observed and simulated streamCow. Then the model was run for historical and future scenarios (early, mid, and end of the 21st century) for four RCMs. Variables such as rainfall, surface runoA, water yield, evapotranspiration, and intensity of rainfall showed an increasing trend under future scenarios, while crop yields (corn, cotton and rice) showed a decreasing trend. The models predicted an increase in the extremity of rainfall events, especially in the months of July and August, for the mid and end of the 21st century. The results showed that the production of cotton is under threat in the district in future. The results obtained can be used to plan the mitigation and adaptation strategies for the region. Keywords. Climate change impact; climate model; rainfall; runoA; SWAT.
1. Introduction An increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions alter hydrologic conditions such as increase in global temperature, initiating a chain of events, aAecting rainfall patterns, runoA, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, stream Cows and its frequency, severity of Coods and droughts (Zierl and Bugmann 2005; Gosain et al. 2006; Oki and Kanae 2006; Zhang et al. 2006; Guhathakurta et al. 2011;
Raneesh and Thampi Santosh 2011; Uniyal et al. 2015; Djebou 2017; Tavakolifar et al. 2017). Apart from global warming, climate change may add additional pressure on water resources and it is evident that climate change would impact the hydrology of a basin profoundly. Impacts have been reported in snowmelt and glaciers (Scherler et al. 2011; Khadka et al. 2014), green and blue water resources (Kundzewicz et al. 2008; Faramarzi et al. 2013; Shrestha et al. 2017b; Zhuang
20
Page 2 of 17
et al. 2018), crop yield and i
Data Loading...
