Modeling future irrigation water demands in the context of climate change: a case study of Jayakwadi command area, India
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Modeling future irrigation water demands in the context of climate change: a case study of Jayakwadi command area, India Akshay Sunil1 · B. Deepthi1 · A. B. Mirajkar1 · S. Adarsh2 Received: 22 May 2020 / Accepted: 25 August 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract In the present study, the downscaled future climate data from the General Circulation Model (GCM), CanESM2 has been used to calculate the monthly crop water requirements of the major crops cultivated in the Jayakwadi command area, Maharashtra, India. Statistical downscaling was carried out using the statistical downscaling model and the future irrigation demands were estimated using the CROPWAT model. Statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM model and prediction of the future temperature and precipitation was done for two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios namely the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Further, the future irrigation demands were estimated under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period 2011–2100 with three-time spells of 30 years centered on the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070), and 2080s (2071–2100). The results indicated an increase in temperature and precipitation over time spells when compared to the base period (1961–2005). The annual average temperature has been projected to increase by 0.306 °C and 0.358 °C by the 2080s when compared to the base period under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The annual average precipitation has been projected to increase from 856.58 mm in the base period to 1410.11 mm and 1784.06 mm under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The average reference evapotranspiration ( ETo) values showed an increase from 5.41 mm/day to 5.45 mm/ day, 5.53 mm/day, and 5.57 mm/day for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The average annual irrigation demand showed a reduction of 14.07% and 14.72% for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. The estimated variations in demand values can be used for optimal irrigation planning in the culturable command area of the Jayakwadi reservoir. Keywords Climate change · Crop water requirements · General circulation model · Statistical downscaling · CROPWAT
Introduction Indian economy is highly reliant on agriculture and the major share of the reservoir storage in India is used for irrigation purposes. The irrigation demand has a strong relationship * Akshay Sunil [email protected] B. Deepthi [email protected] A. B. Mirajkar [email protected] S. Adarsh [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Nagpur 440010, India
Department of Civil Engineering, TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, India
2
with the climate of an area (Tukimat et al. 2017). The rainfall trend, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed are some of the climatic parameters that affect the irrigation water requirement and agricultural production of a region (Rehana and Mujumdar 2012; Battude et al. 2016). Ther
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