Association between Arctic autumn sea ice concentration and early winter precipitation in China
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Association between Arctic autumn sea ice concentration and early winter precipitation in China LIU Na1, LIN Lina1, 2, KONG Bin1, 3, WANG Yingjie1*, ZHANG Zhanhai4, CHEN Hongxia1 1 Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic
Administration, Qingdao 266061, China 2 South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China 3 Geomatics College, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China 4 Key Laboratory for Polar Science, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 200136, China
Received 11 April 2015; accepted 25 September 2015 ©The Chinese Society of Oceanography and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016
Abstract
Associations between autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and early winter precipitation in China are studied using singular value decomposition analysis. The results show that a reduced SIC almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean, except the northern Greenland Sea and Canadian Basin, are accompanied by dry conditions over central China, extending northeast from the Tibetan Plateau toward the Japan Sea, the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, and wet conditions over South China and North China. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with SIC variability show two wave-train structures, which are persistent from autumn to winter, leading to the identified relationship between autumn Arctic SIC and early winter precipitation in China. Given that the decline in autumn SIC in the Arctic Ocean is expected to continue as the climate warms, this relationship provides a possible long-term outlook for early winter precipitation in China. Key words: Arctic autumn sea ice, early winter precipitation in China, SVD Citation: Liu Na, Lin Lina, Kong Bin, Wang Yingjie, Zhang Zhanhai, Chen Hongxia. 2016. Association between Arctic Autumn sea ice concentration and early winter precipitation in China. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 35(5): 73–78, doi: 10.1007/s13131-016-0860-7
1 Introduction In recent winters, China has experienced record levels of anomalously heavy snowfall, similar to North America and Europe. As shown in Fig. 1, snowstorms and freezing rain affected South China during the winters of 2007 and 2008, while drought over northern China and freezing rain over South China were features in winters during the period 2009–2011. The resulting disruption to transport, energy supply and power transmission, as well as damage to agriculture, not only affected people's lives and productivity, but also led to enormous economic losses. Understanding the forcings and mechanisms responsible for such extreme weather events are important for long-range weather and climate forecasting. The role of Arctic sea ice in the earth’s climate system has been extensively investigated using observations and simulations (Walsh, 1983; Honda et al., 1996; Rigor et al., 2002; Alexander et al., 2004; Deser et al., 2004, 2010; Magnusdottir et al., 2004; Singarayer, 2006; Kumar et al., 2010; DeWeaver et al., 2013). Recently,
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