Biases in Survey Estimates of Neonatal Mortality: Results From a Validation Study in Urban Areas of Guinea-Bissau

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Biases in Survey Estimates of Neonatal Mortality: Results From a Validation Study in Urban Areas of Guinea-Bissau Stéphane Helleringer 1 & Li Liu 2 & Yue Chu 3 & Amabelia Rodrigues 4 & Ane Barent Fisker 4,5

# Population Association of America 2020

Abstract Neonatal deaths (occurring within 28 days of birth) account for close to one-half of all deaths among children under age 5 worldwide. In most low- and middle-income countries, data on neonatal deaths come primarily from household surveys. We conducted a validation study of survey data on neonatal mortality in Guinea-Bissau (West Africa). We used records from an urban health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) that monitors child survival prospectively as our reference data set. We selected a stratified sample of 599 women aged 15–49 among residents of the HDSS and collected the birth histories of 422 participants. We cross-tabulated survey and HDSS data. We used a mathematical model to investigate biases in survey estimates of neonatal mortality. Reporting errors in survey data might lead to estimates of the neonatal mortality rate that are too high, which may limit our ability to track progress toward global health objectives. Keywords Neonatal mortality . Stillbirths . Survey data . Measurement error . Sustainable

Development Goals

Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-02000911-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

* Stéphane Helleringer [email protected]

1

Division of Social Science Program on Social Research and Public Policy, New York University Abu Dhabi, P.O. Box 129188 Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

2

Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA

3

Department of Sociology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

4

Bandim Health Project, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau

5

University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark

S. Helleringer et al.

Background A neonatal death is a death that occurs during the first 28 days of life. In 2017, the UN Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (IGME) estimated that worldwide, 47% of all children who died before age 5 died during the neonatal period (IGME 2018). Reducing the neonatal mortality rate (NMR) is now a key target of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3: by 2030, countries should strive to reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 deaths per 1,000 live births (UN 2018). Progress toward this target requires accurate data on the levels and trends of neonatal mortality (Lawn et al. 2014; Moxon et al. 2015). Such data will allow better targeting interventions to reduce neonatal mortality and monitoring of the effects of changes in intervention coverage (Davey and Deribe 2017). In most high-income countries, such data come from civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems that operate continuously. In low- and middle-income countries (LMI