Causal Analysis in Population Studies Concepts, Methods, Application

The central aim of many studies in population research and demography is to explain cause-effect relationships among variables or events. For decades, population scientists have concentrated their efforts on estimating the ‘causes of effects’ by applying

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THE SPRINGER SERIES ON

DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS AND POPULATION ANALYSIS Series Editor

KENNETH C. LAND Duke University In recent decades, there has been a rapid development of demographic models and methods and an explosive growth in the range of applications of population analysis. This series seeks to provide a publication outlet both for high-quality textual and expository books on modern techniques of demographic analysis and for works that present exemplary applications of such techniques to various aspects of population analysis. Topics appropriate for the series include: • • • • • • • • • • • • •

General demographic methods Techniques of standardization Life table models and methods Multistate and multiregional life tables, analyses and projections Demographic aspects of biostatistics and epidemiology Stable population theory and its extensions Methods of indirect estimation Stochastic population models Event history analysis, duration analysis, and hazard regression models Demographic projection methods and population forecasts Techniques of applied demographic analysis, regional and local population estimates and projections Methods of estimation and projection for business and health care applications Methods and estimates for unique populations such as schools and students

Volumes in the series are of interest to researchers, professionals, and students in demography, sociology, economics, statistics, geography and regional science, public health and health care management, epidemiology, biostatistics, actuarial science, business, and related fields.

For other titles published in this series, go to www.springer.com/series/6449

Causal Analysis in Population Studies Concepts, Methods, Applications

Edited by

Henriette Engelhardt University of Bamberg, Germany

Hans-Peter Kohler University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA and

Alexia Prskawetz Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences and Vienna University of Technology, Austria

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Editors Prof. Henriette Engelhardt University of Bamberg Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences Lichtenhaidestr. 11 96045 Bamberg Germany [email protected]

Prof. Hans-Peter Kohler University of Pennsylvania Dept. Sociology Population Studies Center 3718 Locust Walk Philadelphia PA 19104 USA [email protected]

Prof. Alexia Prskawetz Vienna University of Technology Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Argentinierstr. 8/4/105-3 A-1040 Vienna, Austria [email protected]

“Supported by the City of Vienna, Cultural Department, Science and Research Promotion”. ISBN 978-1-4020-9966-3

e-ISBN 978-1-4020-9967-0

DOI 10.1007/978-1-4020-9967-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2009920980 c Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009  No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied sp