Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways
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Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways Samuel Sellers 1 Received: 10 November 2019 / Accepted: 10 August 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Climate change will create numerous risks for human health, including impacts associated with temperature extremes, diarrheal diseases, and undernutrition. Such risks, along with other socioeconomic and development trends, will affect cause-of-death patterns experienced in the coming decades. This study explores future mortality trends using the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) framework, a widely utilized tool for understanding socioeconomic development trends in a world with climate change. Existing projections for GDP, urbanization, and demographic trends based on SSP narratives are incorporated into an integrated assessment model, International Futures (IFs), in order to project mortality levels by cause of death for all countries from 2020 to 2100. Under more optimistic SSPs, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) rise as a proportion of all deaths, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, while more pessimistic SSPs suggest a continued high burden of largely preventable communicable diseases. In highincome countries, significant continued burdens of NCDs are projected for the remainder of the century under all SSPs. Comparisons are also made to recent cause-of-death projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to assess how the IFs and IHME models vary. Keywords Mortality . Demography . Health . Traffic accident . International Futures
1 Introduction In recent years, the literature linking global climate change and human health outcomes has rapidly developed. Climate change has a variety of adverse impacts on human health through Author was affiliated with this institution when manuscript was composed, but is no longer affiliated. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002824-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Samuel Sellers [email protected]
1
Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Climatic Change
multiple and complex pathways, including temperature extremes, droughts, impacts of natural disasters, infectious diseases, and undernutrition (Watts et al. 2019). A subset of this literature has focused on the mortality impacts of specific climate-related mechanisms (Lutz et al. 2014b; Gasparrini et al. 2015; Hasegawa et al. 2016). While there is uncertainty regarding the future health impacts of climate change, making projection challenging, in general, health harms are likely to be greater at higher levels of warming (Ebi et al. 2018). Although there are numerous and highly visible impacts of climate change in high-income countries, the health effects of climate change will be felt most in low- and middle-income countries that have less capacity to respond to climate-related health hazards (Keim 2008). Factors associated with socioeconomic dev
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