Changes of potential catches for North-East Atlantic small pelagic fisheries under climate change scenarios
- PDF / 1,770,776 Bytes
- 16 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 88 Downloads / 233 Views
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Changes of potential catches for North-East Atlantic small pelagic fisheries under climate change scenarios Jose A. Fernandes 1,2 & Thomas L. Frölicher 3 & Louise A. Rutterford 4,5,6 & Maite Erauskin-Extramiana 1 & William W. L. Cheung 7 Received: 9 April 2019 / Accepted: 17 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Small- and intermediate-size pelagic fisheries are highly impacted by environmental variability and climate change. Their wide geographical distribution and high mobility makes them more likely to shift their distribution under climate change. Here, we explore the potential impact of different climate change scenarios on the four main commercial pelagic species in the North-East Atlantic (NEA): Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), European sprat (Sprattus sprattus), Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou). We used a process-based fisheries model (SS-DBEM), where all the target species were exploited at their maximum sustainable yield (MSY), to project future potential catches under a high- and low-futuregreenhouse-gas scenario (RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively). Two ocean biogeochemical models (GDFL and MEDUSA) were used to force the environmental conditions. Mackerel and sprat are projected to have increases in a potential catch under both scenarios. Herring and blue whiting are projected to increase under the RCP2.6, but future projections under RCP8.5 show mixed responses with decreases or no changes forecasted. Overall, the potential catch is projected to increase in the northern area of the NEA but is projected to decrease in the southern area. These projected changes are mainly driven by changes in temperature and primary production. Shifts in the distribution of pelagic resources may destabilize existing international agreements on sharing of straddling resources as exemplified by the dispute in sharing of quota for Atlantic mackerel. Novel climateready policy approaches considering full species distribution are needed to complement current stock-based approaches.
Communicated by Virginia Burkett
Keywords Climate change . Marine fisheries . Modelling . Projections . Uncertainty . Ecosystem approach . Fisheries management . Widely distributed species . Pelagic species
* Jose A. Fernandes [email protected]
Introduction 1
AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Herrera Kaia, Portualdea, z/g, 20110 Pasaia, Gipuzkoa, Spain
2
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL13 DH, UK
3
Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
4
Biosciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter EX4 4QD, UK
5
School of Biological Sciences, Life Sciences Building, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TQ, UK
6
Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT, UK
7
Nippon
Data Loading...
