Childbearing Trends and Prospects in Low-Fertility Countries A Cohor

Low fertility, one of the critical issues in the contemporary world, will persist in the foreseeable future. That is arguably the principal conclusion of this book. Fundamental changes in social security and health care systems, taxation schemes, and migr

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European Studies of Population VOLUME 13 The book series European Studies of Population (ESPO) aims at disseminating population and family research, with special relevance for Europe. It may analyse past, present and/or future trends, as well as their determinants and consequences. The character of the series is multidisciplinary, including formal demographic analyses, as well as social, economic and/or historical population and family studies. The following types of studies are of primary importance: (a) internationally relevant studies, (b) European comparative studies, (c) innovative theoretical and methodological studies, and (d) policy-relevant scientific studies. The series may include monographs, edited volumes and reference works. The book series is published under the auspices of the European Associaiton for Population Studies (EAPS) Editorial Board: Charlotte Höhn, Bundesinstitut f\"ur Bev\"olkerungsforschung, (BiB), Wiesbaden, Germany Thérèse Jacobs, Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS), Brussels, Belgium Janina Józwiak, European Association for Population Studies (EAPS) Nico Keilman, Statistics Norway, Oslo, Norway Miroslav Macura, Population Activities Unit, (ECE, United Nations), Geneva, Switzerland Maura Misiti, Istituto di Recerche sulla Popolazione (IRP), Roma, Italy Jean-Marc Rohrbasser, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques (INED), Paris, France Zsollt Spéder, NKI, Budapest, Hungary Frans Willekens, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, Netherlands Advisory Board: Ines Alberdi, Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain, Herwig Birg, (Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung, Bielefeld, Germany), Graziella Caselli, (Università degli studi di Roma “La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy), David Coleman, (Department of Applied Social Studies and Social Research, Oxford University, United Kingdom), Jack Habib, (Brookdate Institute, Jerusalem, Israel), Kalev Katus, (Estonian Interuniversity Population Research Centre, Talinn, Estonia), Máire Ní Bhrolcháin , (Department of Social Statistics, Southampton, United Kingdom), Vita Pruzan, (Danish National Institute of Social Research, Copenhagen, Denmark), Serge Scherbov, (Population Research Centre, Groningen University, Netherlands), David Sly, (Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA), Tapani Valkonen, (University of Helsinki, Finland), James Vaupel, (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany). Editorial Office: Gijs Beets Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) PO Box 11650 NL-2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands Phone: +31 70 356 5200 Fax: +31 70 364 7187 E-mail: [email protected] Technical Coordinator: Jacqueline van der Helm

The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume

Childbearing Trends and Prospects in Low-Fertility Countries A Cohort Analysis

by

TOMAS FREJKA and

JEAN-PAUL SARDON With the assistance of Alain Confession

KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS NEW YORK, BOSTON, DORDRECHT, LONDON, MOSCOW

eBook ISBN: Print ISBN:

1-4020-2458-4 1-4020-2457-6

©2005 Springer