Climate-induced shifts in the niche similarity of two related spadefoot toads (genus Pelobates )
- PDF / 4,810,562 Bytes
- 12 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 35 Downloads / 148 Views
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Climate-induced shifts in the niche similarity of two related spadefoot toads (genus Pelobates) Ruben Iosif & Monica Papeş & Ciprian Samoilă & Dan Cogălniceanu
Received: 12 March 2014 / Accepted: 28 July 2014 # Gesellschaft für Biologische Systematik 2014
Abstract Of the four species encompassing the genus Pelobates, only two overlap along a narrow contact zone, i.e., Pelobates fuscus and Pelobates syriacus. Our study investigated the shifts in niche similarity of these two closely related species from the Last Interglacial towards the end of the twenty-first century. We computed climatic suitability models using Maxent and projected them onto future and past climates. We used fossil occurrences to test the predictive accuracy of past projections. Niche similarity was assessed between the studied species using Schoener’s D index and a background similarity test. Finally, we evaluated niche differentiation by contrasting the species occurrences using a logistic regression analysis. The ecological niches are slightly extended outside the present geographical ranges in the Caucasus and the Balkans, south for P. fuscus and north and west for P. syriacus, suggesting that their present distribution is not at equilibrium with the climate. The Last Interglacial distribution of P. fuscus included British Isles and broad areas in western, central, and northern Europe, while P. syriacus extended northwards in the Balkans. The validation with fossil records revealed good predictive performance (omission error=4.1 % for P. fuscus and 16.6 % for P. syriacus). During the Last Glacial Maximum, climatic suitability persisted in refugia in southern Europe, Pannonian Basin, and Caucasus
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13127-014-0181-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. R. Iosif : C. Samoilă : D. Cogălniceanu (*) Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, Ovidius University Constanţa, 1 Aleea Univesitatii, Building B, Room P43, Constanţa 900470, Romania e-mail: [email protected] M. Papeş Department of Zoology, Oklahoma State University, 501 LSW, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA
for P. fuscus, and Israel, southern Balkans, and Caucasus for P. syriacus. Present potential distributions revealed a low similarity of species’ ecological niches, comparable with Last Interglacial, but projections towards 2080 revealed a sharp increase. Keywords Ecological niche . Climate change . Pelobates fuscus . Pelobates syriacus . Glaciations
Introduction Climate change contributed to the decline and even extinction of many amphibian species throughout the world (Reading 2007). Biological responses to climate change often result in range shifts (Parmesan 2006), usually towards higher altitudes and latitudes, in accordance with the species’ thermal limits. For species to survive, they must keep pace with the climate shifts (Loarie et al. 2009), but there are concerns that many will not be able to establish populations in newly suitable
Data Loading...
