Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts,

Prepared for the 2013 National Climate Assessment and a landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage,Climate of the Southeast United States is the result of a collaboration among three Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Cent

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Climate of the Southeast United States VARIABILITY, CHANGE, IMPACTS, AND VULNERABILITY Edited by: Keith T. Ingram Kirstin Dow Lynne Carter Julie Anderson

Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability

© 2013 Southeast Climate Consortium All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes ’œȱ™Ž›–’ĴŽȱŠœȱ•˜—ȱŠœȱ™›˜™Ž›ȱŠŒ”—˜ •ŽŽ–Ž—ȱ’œȱ’—Œ•žŽǯȱœŽ›œȱŠ›Žȱ›Žœ›’ŒŽȱ›˜–ȱ ™‘˜˜Œ˜™¢’—ȱ˜›ȱ–ŽŒ‘Š—’ŒŠ•ȱ›Ž™›˜žŒ’˜—ȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱŒ›ŽŠ’—ȱŽ›’ŸŠ’ŸŽȱ ˜›”œȱ˜›ȱŒ˜––Ž›Œ’Š•ȱ ™ž›™˜œŽœȱ ’‘˜žȱ‘Žȱ™›’˜›ȱ ›’ĴŽ—ȱ™Ž›–’œœ’˜—ȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ™ž‹•’œ‘Ž›ǯ ȱȱ’œȱŠȱ›ŠŽ–Š›”ȱ˜ȱ‘ŽȱŽ—Ž›ȱ˜›ȱŽœ˜ž›ŒŽȱŒ˜—˜–’Œœǯ Printed on recycled, acid-free paper Š—žŠŒž›Žȱ’—ȱ‘Žȱ—’ŽȱŠŽœȱ˜ȱ–Ž›’ŒŠ Citation: —›Š–ǰȱ ǯǰȱ ǯȱ˜ ǰȱǯȱŠ›Ž›ǰȱ ǯȱ—Ž›œ˜—ǰȱŽœǯȱŘŖŗřǯȱ•’–ŠŽȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ˜ž‘ŽŠœȱ —’ŽȱŠŽœDZȱŠ›’Š‹’•’¢ǰȱŒ‘Š—Žǰȱ’–™ŠŒœǰȱŠ—ȱŸž•—Ž›Š‹’•’¢ǯȱŠœ‘’—˜—ȱDZȱ œ•Š—ȱ›Žœœǯ Keywords:ȱ™Š•ŠŒ‘’Œ˜•ŠȬ‘ŠĴŠ‘˜˜Œ‘ŽŽȬ•’—ȱ‹Šœ’—ǰȱŠŠ™Š’˜—ǰȱŠ›’Œž•ž›ŽǰȱŠ’›ȱšžŠ•’¢ǰȱ ŠœœŽœœ–Ž—ǰȱŠ–˜œ™‘Ž›Žǰȱ‹Š››’Ž›ȱ’œ•Š—œǰȱ‹’˜’ŸŽ›œ’¢ǰȱŒ˜ŠœŠ•ȱ Ž•Š—œǰȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—Žǰȱ climate impacts, climate modeling, climate variability, coastal, drought, education, electric ™˜ Ž›ȱŽ—Ž›Š’˜—ǰȱŽ¡›Ž–Žȱ ŽŠ‘Ž›ǰȱ̘˜’—ǰȱ˜›Žœȱ›Žœ˜ž›ŒŽœǰȱ›ŽŽ£Žœǰȱ‘ŽŠȱ›Ž•ŠŽȱ’••—Žœœǰȱ ‘ŽŠȱ ŠŸŽǰȱ‘ž››’ŒŠ—Žœǰȱ•Š—ȬžœŽȱŒ‘Š—Žǰȱ–Š—›˜ŸŽœǰȱ–’’Š’˜—ǰȱ–˜œšž’˜Žœǰȱ—Šž›Š•ȱ›Žœ˜ž›ŒŽȱ –Š—ŠŽ–Ž—ǰȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱŠŒ’’ęŒŠ’˜—ǰȱžŽ›˜ȱ’Œ˜ǰȱ™›ŽŒ’™’Š’˜—ǰȱ™ž‹•’Œȱ‘ŽŠ•‘ǰȱ›Š’—Š••ǰȱœŠ•Ȭ ŠŽ›ȱ intrusion, sea level rise, silviculture, social vulnerability, Southeast, storm surge, tropical œ˜›–œǰȱ˜ž›’œ–ǰȱž—ŒŽ›Š’—¢ǰȱǯǯȱ’›’—ȱ œ•Š—œǰȱŸŽŒ˜›Ȭ‹˜›—Žȱ’œŽŠœŽǰȱ ŠŽ›ȱ›Žœ˜ž›ŒŽœǰȱ  Ž•Š—œǰȱ ’•ę›Ž ‘’œȱŽŒ‘—’ŒŠ•ȱ’—™žȱ˜Œž–Ž—ȱ’—ȱ’œȱŒž››Ž—ȱ˜›–ȱ˜Žœȱ—˜ȱ›Ž™›ŽœŽ—ȱŠȱŽŽ›Š•ȱ˜Œž–Ž—ȱ˜ȱ Š—¢ȱ”’—ȱŠ—ȱœ‘˜ž•ȱ—˜ȱ‹Žȱ’—Ž›™›ŽŽȱŠœȱ‘Žȱ™˜œ’’˜—ȱ˜›ȱ™˜•’Œ¢ȱ˜ȱŠ—¢ȱŽŽ›Š•ǰȱŠŽǰȱ˜ŒŠ•ǰȱ˜›ȱ Tribal Government or Non-governmental entity. Front Cover Images: ˜ —˜ —ȱ•Š—Šǰȱ Ž˜›’ŠǰȱŒ˜ž›Žœ¢ȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ•Š—Šȱ˜—ŸŽ—’˜—ȱŠ—ȱ ’œ’˜›Ȃœȱž›ŽŠžȱǻ˜™Ǽǯȱ‘Ž›ȱ™‘˜˜œȱ‹¢ȱ›˜ ȱ›˜–ȱ‘Žȱ˜™ȱ•ŽDZȱ ›ŽŠȱ–˜”Ž¢ȱ˜ž—Š’—œȱŠȱ Œ˜—Š•žŽŽȱŸŽ›•˜˜”ǰȱŒ˜ž›Žœ¢ȱ˜ȱȱŠ’˜—Š•ȱŠ›”ȱŽ›Ÿ’ŒŽDzȱ¢–™‘ŠŽŠȱ˜™Ž—ȱ ŠŽ›ȱœ•˜ž‘ȱ ’—ȱŸŽ›•ŠŽœȱŠ’˜—Š•ȱŠ›”ǰȱž›’œȱ ǯȱ’Œ‘Š›œ˜—Dzȱ˜ž‘ȱŠ›˜•’—ŠȱŒ˜ŠœŠ•ȱ–Š›œ‘ǰȱŒ˜ž›Žœ¢ȱ˜ȱ ‘Žȱȱ’œ‘ȱŠ—ȱ’••’ŽȱŽ›Ÿ’ŒŽDzȱ•˜›’Šȱ˜ Ž›ȱŠ—ȱ’‘ȱǻǼȱŽœ˜˜ȱ˜•Š›ȱ˜ Ž›ȱ•Š—ǰȱ Œ˜ž›Žœ¢ȱ˜ȱDzȱœ™›’—ȱ̘ Ž›œȱŠȱŠ––˜‘ȱŠŸŽȱŠ’˜—Š•ȱŠ›”ǰȱŒ˜ž›Žœ¢ȱ˜ȱȱŠ’˜—Š•ȱ Š›”ȱŽ›Ÿ’ŒŽDzȱ–˜ž‘ȱ˜ȱ’Š–’ȱ’ŸŽ›ǰȱ’Š–’ǰȱ•˜›’ŠǰȱŠ›ŒȱŸŽ›ŽĴŽǯ

About This Series This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the Third National •’–ŠŽȱœœŽœœ–Ž—ȱǻǼȱ›Ž™˜›ǯȱ‘Žȱȱ’œȱ‹Ž’—ȱŒ˜—žŒŽȱž—Ž›ȱ‘ŽȱŠžœ™’ŒŽœȱ ˜ȱ‘Žȱ •˜‹Š•ȱ‘Š—ŽȱŽœŽŠ›Œ‘ȱŒȱ˜ȱŗşşŖǰȱ ‘’Œ‘ȱ›Žšž’›ŽœȱŠȱ›Ž™˜›ȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ›Žœ’Ž—ȱ and Congress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate