Conserving populations at the edge of their geographic range: the endangered Caspian red deer ( Cervus elaphus maral ) a
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Conserving populations at the edge of their geographic range: the endangered Caspian red deer (Cervus elaphus maral) across protected areas of Iran Shirko Shokri1,2 • Abbas Jafari3 • Korous Rabei4 • Ehsan Hadipour5 • Hossein Alinejad5 • Thorsten Zeppenfeld6 • Mobin Soufi7 • Ali Qashqaei8 • Mohsen Ahmadpour9 • Bahram Zehzad10 • Bahram H. Kiabi10 • Chris R. Pavey11 • Niko Balkenhol12 • Matthias Waltert13 • Mahmood Soofi13,14 Received: 7 July 2020 / Revised: 16 October 2020 / Accepted: 31 October 2020 Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Large ungulate populations around the world are declining, experience range loss or even go extinct. Ecological theory predicts that a species’ vulnerability is greater at the edges of its geographic range compared to its core. However, edge populations may still be successfully managed inside reserves when the drivers of declines are addressed with priority. Our aim was to evaluate the status of Caspian red deer in Iran and address the importance of law enforcement and landscape connectivity between reserves. Using systematic occurrence records and ranger-based censuses, we applied multiple methods to model the Caspian red deer’s distribution, quantify population trajectory metrics and predict landscape connectivity. Additionally, we ran generalized linear models in a Bayesian approach to assess the importance of ranger stations and connectivity on population abundance. We estimated the population at 747 (CI 95% 604–890) individuals being confined to 21 areas, reflecting a decline by 59% compared to an estimate in 1977 with declining trajectories in 98% of reserves. The number of ranger stations was the only factor correlating with its population abundance. Moreover, extirpation and range loss mostly occurred in the periphery of its Iranian distribution, and we detected five stepping stone areas in the center of the range. Our study suggests that under conditions of heavy poaching and competition with livestock, conservation urgently needs to focus on increased law enforcement and improvement of habitat quality to stop declines and prevent extinction of this large ungulate in Iran. Keywords Caspian forest Edge of range Hyrcanian forest Population size Ranger stations Stepping stone
Communicated by Dirk Sven Schmeller. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-02002077-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Extended author information available on the last page of the article
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Biodiversity and Conservation
Introduction Large terrestrial ungulates often act as ecosystem engineers and play an irreplaceable role in shaping landscape heterogeneity (Ripple et al. 2015). However, many (sub-)populations of large ungulates are affected by poaching and competition with livestock grazing as a result of human population growth (Ripple et al. 2015; Di Marco et al. 2014; Benı´tezLo´pez et al. 2017; Bleyhl et al. 2019). These fa
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