Decision Analysis for Management Judgement (2nd Edn)
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#1998 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved. 0160-5682/98 $12.00 http://www.stockton-press.co.uk/jor
Book Selection Edited by JM Wilson P Goodwin and G Wright: Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (2nd Edn) G Wright and P Goodwin (Eds): Forecasting with Judgment TM Williams (Ed): Managing and Modelling Complex Projects DV Landvater: World Class Production and Inventory Management (2nd Edn)
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (2nd Edn) P Goodwin and G Wright John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, 1998. xii 454 pp. £24.95 ISBN 0 471 97496 X The book sets out in the preface several aims. They include centering the book around practical management problems and introducing theoretical considerations only when important. External factors as they affect decisions such as environment and divergent group interests are included in these aims along with the integration of quantitative and psychological factors in decision making. The use of software and behavioural issues are also included. Finally, the book is to be considered as a text for upper undergraduates and selected graduate courses. To describe the book in all its detail is not possible in the abbreviated format of this review. However, something must be said about the organisation of the chapters. Chapter 1 outlines a series of applications which will be followed up throughout the book. The rest of the chapters address the issues raised by the ®rst chapter. Chapter 2 is on decisions with multiple objectives with little or no uncertainty. Chapter 3 introduces biases in decision making. Chapter 4 is an introduction to uncertainty with respect to probability theory. Chapter 5 applies probability theory to decisions. Chapter 6 uses trees and in¯uence diagrams to illustrate their use in decision making. Chapter 7 introduces simulation and random numbers while Chapter 8 shows how to apply Bayesian theory to decisions. Chapters 9 and 10 are about the art of human judgment and how to elicit probabilities. Chapters 11 and 12 are on group decisions while 13 and 14 are about the effect of assumptions on the decision making process. Chapter 15 introduces analytic hierarchy. Chapter 16 touches on expert systems. Having been involved in making decisions I can appreciate the authors' concerns and problems. Decision making does involve the use of science, but in an artful way. The authors do just that. The book is well designed and could very easily be used as a text. I found the book well organised, informative, and especially easy to read. One
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should keep that in mind if one is considering the book as a prospective text for undergraduates. I give the book my highest recommendation. University of Maryland
C Leake
Forecasting with Judgment G Wright and P Goodwin (Eds) John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, 1998. xvi 297 pp. £45.00. ISBN 0 471 97014 X Forecasting is an activity permeated with judgement: what to forecast; what data to collect and analysis in what context to inform the forecast; what experts to consult and how to include th
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