Design and application for a replicable foresight methodology bridging quantitative and qualitative expert data
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Design and application for a replicable foresight methodology bridging quantitative and qualitative expert data Jan Erik Karlsen
Received: 26 February 2014 / Accepted: 3 April 2014 # The Author(s) 2014. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Abstract Producing foresight knowledge frequently requires both evidence and creativity based expertise. This paper offers assessment of an electronic expert Group Support System (named «E-lab») facilitating efficient foresight knowledge production by using and coalescing a series of quantitative and qualitative methods and techniques, challenging the need for better understanding of foresight methodology assumptions and options. Observations and assessments of the E-lab methodology have been made in several expert workshops conducted both at the regional, national and European level over a ten years’ period (2003–2013) and across a series of foresight themes; e.g. European hydrogen society, Nordic addiction policy, National knowledge policy, Images of addiction and lifestyles in Europe, and University future governance. This methodology research adds to the body of knowledge on the effects of virtual group meetings encompassing a mixed method information platform often generated and shared in expert foresight exercises. Keywords Foresight expert workshops . Group support systems . Nominal group technique . Knowledge elicitation,·Mixed methods·
Introduction Foresights - rigorous imagining is the driver Participative expert foresights are intriguing and captivating, since they capitalise on intellectually virtuous thought processes about the future [1]. The intention is neither prediction J. E. Karlsen (*) Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger, Norway e-mail: [email protected]
nor falsification; rather, it is about crafting robust images of the future built on the perceptual and creative capacity of the experts. Nevertheless, every imagining starts in the present and most often includes considerations of the past. Thus, the baseline is grounded on factual observations of what we habitually call evidence-based ‘conditional facts’. Furthermore, signs of forerunners of the future may be spotted. Accordingly, both qualitative and quantitative data help experts relate to the imagining of domain futures. However, the need is prominent to optimise the time budget and the number of experts in such foresights. Presumably, we involve domain experts, since they hold explicit and implicit knowledge conducive both to assess the evidence of a present baseline and to elaborate on future images and their trajectories. In doing so, experts attempt to create, analyse, combine and apply both numbers and narratives. Arguably, the integration of qualitative and quantitative information is a major endeavour in foresight analysis. Both approaches have their assets. Qualitative approaches can have a richness that is not assured by quantitative methods. They can explore relationships and trends for which little or no numerical
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