Methodological Challenges in Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Foresight Methods for Sustainable Energy Futures: Th
This chapter presents a reflection on the challenges of combining participatory fuzzy-set multi-criteria analysis (MCA) with narrative scenario building and energy modelling, in the context of the SEPIA project. SEPIA aims to investigate participatory dec
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Methodological Challenges in Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Foresight Methods for Sustainable Energy Futures: The SEPIA Project Erik Laes, Da Ruan, Fre Maes, and Aviel Verbruggen
16.1
Introduction
This chapter presents a reflection on the challenges of combining participatory fuzzyset multi-criteria analysis (MCA) with narrative scenario building and energy modelling, in the context of the SEPIA project.1 SEPIA aims to investigate participatory decision support systems for sustainable energy policymaking. More precisely, SEPIA elaborates on aspects of sustainability assessment (SA) in the energy policy context in order to reach consensus among the stakeholders involved. SEPIA provides the basis for an SA procedure adapted to the context of Belgian energy governance.
The authors wish to dedicate this chapter to the memory of our friend and colleague Da Ruan. We will remember Da as a motivated scientist with an indefatigable but also very congenial personality. 1
The SEPIA project is being carried out by five partners: the University of Antwerp (UA, acting as the coordinator), the Free University of Brussels (VUB), the University of Liège (ULg), the Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO) and the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK•CEN). It is funded by the Belgian Office of Science Policy. Further details on this project can be found at the project’s website www.ua.ac.be/sepia.
E. Laes (*) Unit ‘Transition Energy and Environment’ (TEM), VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium e-mail: [email protected] F. Maes Monitoring and climate policy cell, climate change service, Federal Public Service Public health, Safety of the food chain and Environment, Victor Hortaplein, 40 bus 10, 1060 Brussels, Belgium e-mail: [email protected] A. Verbruggen University of Antwerp (UA), Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerpen, Belgium e-mail: [email protected] M. Giaoutzi and B. Sapio (eds.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems 1, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_16, © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
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This chapter addresses methodological challenges phased in SEPIA, as follows. First Sect. 16.2 presents the ‘state of the art’ in sustainability assessment, foresight methodologies and multi-criteria analysis. Sect. 16.3 discusses how these three domains were combined in the SEPIA project. The chapter ends in Sect. 16.4 with some preliminary conclusions and observations.
16.2
16.2.1
Methods for Strategic Decision Making on Sustainable Energy Development Sustainability Assessment
The different approaches to integrated sustainability assessment can be illustrated when placed in the broader governance framework. Paredis et al. (2006) make a useful distinction between two ideal-typical governance ‘styles’, called, respectively, ‘policy as calculus’ and ‘policy as discourse’. These ‘styles’ illustrate the two extremes of a spectrum of choices available to policymakers interested
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