Detection and Attribution of Changes in Land Surface Sensitive Components
Detection and attribution are essential to understand the roles of natural and anthropogenic factors in changes of land surface sensitive components such as terrestrial ecosystem, water resources and crop yield. In this chapter, we review the research pro
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Fulu Tao, Shilong Piao, Qiuhong Tang, and Wenjiao Shi
Abstract
Detection and attribution are essential to understand the roles of natural and anthropogenic factors in changes of land surface sensitive components such as terrestrial ecosystem, water resources and crop yield. In this chapter, we review the research progress on detection and attribution using the literature statistics and analyses based on 240 international SCI/SSCI journals in the related fields such as geographical sciences, ecology, atmospheric science, hydrology and agriculture. We also review the research progress on detection and attribution in China. We conclude that Chinese scientists have had great progresses on detection and attribution in the past three decades; nevertheless more novel studies are needed to obtain high quality observation data on land surface dynamics and develop human and natural systems coupled models. Keywords
Climate change
Human activities
A total of 12,748 SCI/SSCI-indexed articles are analyzed in the research area of detection and attribution of changes in land surface sensitive components. Articles were identified from 240 international journals from 2000 to 2014. The number of journals that have published more than 15 of the relevant articles is 151 (Appendix U). The search query is as follows: (“climate change” OR “climate” OR “climatic”) AND (“human*” OR “anthropogenic” OR “management” OR “policy” OR “natur*” OR “*forestation” OR “land*” OR “non-climatic*” OR “over graz*” OR “irrigation” OR “practices”) AND (“contributions” OR “roles” OR “impacts” OR “effects” OR “detection” OR “attribution” OR “attributing” OR “cause*” OR “driver”) AND (“land surface” OR “land cover” OR “cropland” OR “hydrological*” OR “water*” OR “runoff” OR “streamflow” OR “flow” OR “evapotranspiration” OR “ET” OR “agriculture” OR “crop” OR “phenology” OR “yield” OR “vegetation” OR “forests” OR “distribution” OR “ecosystem” OR “productivity” OR “LAI” OR “NDVI” OR “NPP” OR “grassland” OR “pasture” OR “drying” OR “degradation” OR “desertification”
Impact
Detection
Attribution
OR “disasters” OR “droughts” OR “floods” OR “glacier” OR “ice sheet” OR “cryosphere” OR “*systems”) NOT (“project*” OR “scenarios”).
24.1 24.1.1
Overview Development of Research Questions
Global temperature was found to increase in the 1970s. Since then, whether climate is changing and what are the causes of climate change have become key research questions (Singer 1999, 2008). Scholars try to find evidence of climate change, and to understand the roles of anthropogenic and natural drivers in climate change, which is the early stage of detection and attribution. The detection and attribution studies develop quickly with the international global environmental change programs. Detection and attribution is concerned with assessing the causal relationship between one or more drivers and a responding system. “Detection of
© The Commercial Press, Ltd. and Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017 S. Leng et al., The Geographical Sciences During 1986–
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