Developing a Robust Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Framework to Evaluate Performance of Water System Design and Plannin
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Developing a Robust Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Framework to Evaluate Performance of Water System Design and Planning under Climate Change Babak Zolghadr-Asli 1 Erfan Goharian 2
& Omid Bozorg-Haddad
1
& Maedeh Enayati
1
&
Received: 15 April 2020 / Accepted: 16 November 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
In theory, emergence of robustness concept has pushed decision-makers toward designing alternatives, such as resistant against the potential fluctuations fueled by uncertain surrounding environment. This study promotes an objective-based multi-attributes decision-making framework that takes into account the un certainties associated with the impacts of the climate change on water resources systems. To capture the uncertainties of climate change, Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate a series of ensembles. These generated ensembles represent the stochastic behavior of the hydro-climatic variables under climate change. This framework represents the inherent uncertainties associated with hydro-climatic simulations. Next, a coupled TOPSIS/Entropy multi-attribute decision-making framework has been formed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using system performance measures. The main objective of this framework is to minimize the risk of deceptive and subjective assessments during decision-making process. Karkheh River basin has been selected as a case study to demonstrate the implication of this framework. Using a set of system performance attributes, the performance of two hydropower systems has been estimated during the baseline period and under the future climate change conditions. According to the conducted frequency analysis, the alternative in which both hydropower projects would go under construction emerged as the robust solution (i.e., there was a 99.9% chance that it outperforms other solutions). The results indicate that the construction of these hydropower systems leads to the increase of Karkheh River basin robustness in the future. Keywords Climate change . Uncertainty . Monte Carlo simulation . Hydropower systems . Multiattribute decision-making . TOPSIS . Entropy . Robustness
* Omid Bozorg-Haddad [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Zolghadr-Asli B. et al.
1 Introduction The term uncertainty describes a situation in which the knowledge about the past, present, or more commonly, the future is not clear. The lack of certainty is a spectrum that ranges from mild to deep levels of uncertainty (Walker et al. 2003). While sensitivity analysis is commonly being used to address the mild levels of uncertainty, it is necessary to explore more sophisticated mathematical approaches to cope with deeper levels of uncertainty (Walker et al. 2013). Monte Carlo-oriented simulation methods, for instance, have offered a great opportunity to investigate the deeper levels of uncertainties (Zhang et al. 2016). In the context of hydro-climatic sciences, one of the major sources of uncertainty is climate change. According to the United Nation
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