Different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrences along the North and East Anatolian fault zones
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrences along the North and East Anatolian fault zones Kaan Hakan Coban 1 & Nilgun Sayil 1 Received: 7 August 2019 / Accepted: 2 September 2020 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2020
Abstract Turkey is bounded by the two of the most active fault zones: the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). Therefore, Turkey has experienced several great earthquakes (M > 7.0) in these fault zones. These earthquakes caused huge devastation on buildings and roads as a result of landslides and liquefaction. Because of these huge effects, we aim to evaluate earthquake hazards by calculating the conditional probability of an earthquake with three probabilistic models (Weibull, gamma, and lognormal) in three selected regions along the NAFZ and EAFZ. For this purpose, the model parameters were calculated by using maximum likelihood estimates from the earthquake (Mw ≥ 5.5) recurrence times that occurred between 1900 and 2016 in the study regions. The fitting of model and data were tested with the log-likelihood value, Akaike information criterion, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov minimum distance criterion. The lognormal model is the best-fit model for three regions according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance criterion while the gamma is the best for region 3 according to the other two test criteria. The gamma model gives the highest probability value (> 0.80) for all regions, and lognormal results reach the values > 0.90 for region 1 (t = 0, τ = 11), for region 2 (t = 0, τ = 7), and for region 3 (t = 0, τ = 11). These results indicated that the shorttime-period earthquake probabilities are high in the study regions. On the other hand, this study will be very useful for assessing the seismic risk and constituting the disaster mitigation plans of the study regions. Keywords North Anatolian Fault Zone . East Anatolian Fault Zone . Weibull . Gamma . Lognormal . Earthquake probability
Introduction The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) are the major continental strike-slip fault zones in the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt (Sengor et al. 1985; Dewey et al. 1986). The NAFZ, as the largest (∼ 1500 km long) right lateral strike-slip fault system in Anatolia, delineates the boundary between the Eurasia and Anatolia plates while the EAFZ (∼ 550 km long) left lateral strike-slip fault system forms the boundary between the Arabian and Anatolia plates. Responsible Editor: Longjun Dong * Kaan Hakan Coban [email protected] Nilgun Sayil [email protected] 1
Engineering Faculty, Department of Geophysics, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, Turkey
These fault zones are also the natural junction between the Caucasus System and the Aegean extension regime. Moreover, the convergence of the Eurasian, African, and Arabian plates causes seismic activity along these continental strike-slip fault zones (Reilinger et al. 1997, 2006; McClusky et al. 2000; Ozener et al. 2010; Aktug et al. 2015, 2016). As a result of this movem
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