Does global warming decrease the correlation between cherry blossom flowering date and latitude in Japan?
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Does global warming decrease the correlation between cherry blossom flowering date and latitude in Japan? Shin Nagai 1,2
&
Taku M. Saitoh 2 & Hiroshi Morimoto 3
Received: 21 May 2020 / Revised: 5 August 2020 / Accepted: 21 August 2020 # ISB 2020
Abstract In Japan, the geographical distribution of the first date of flowering (FFD) of Yoshino cherry trees (Cerasus ×yedoensis) in 2020, a year when temperatures were mild during the previous December and March, was different from the average FFD, which progresses northward along a latitudinal gradient. We hypothesized that global warming may have changed the average geographical pattern of the FFD. To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationship between the observed FFD and latitude at 42 sites during the period 1953–2020. We found that the correlation between FFD and latitude had decreased since 1980. This decrease may have been caused by a rise of temperatures in winter that delayed dormancy release and the subsequent FFD in areas where the annual mean temperature is high. Our results suggest that the correlation between FFD and latitude will decrease further as the climate warms in the future. Keywords Cherry . Flowering phenology . Horizontal gradient . Japan . Linearity
Introduction The geographical distribution of the first date of flowering (FFD) of Yoshino cherry trees (Cerasus ×yedoensis) in 2020 in Japan was very unusual (JMA 2020a). For instance, the FFD in Tokyo (14 March; 35° 41.5′ N) was the earliest FFD in Japan and preceded that in Kagoshima (1 April; 31° 33.3′ N). The FFD was 4 days later in Kagoshima than in Sendai (28 March; 38° 15.7′ N), where the annual mean temperature is 6.2 °C lower than at
* Shin Nagai [email protected] Taku M. Saitoh [email protected] Hiroshi Morimoto [email protected] 1
Earth Surface System Research Center, Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan
2
River Basin Research Center, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu 501-1193, Japan
3
Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan
Kagoshima. This FFD difference between two points was the first recorded (Fig. 1; JMA 2020b). The mild temperatures during December 2019 and March 2020 might have caused this geographical distribution of FFDs. The temperature anomaly between the previous December–March time interval and the climatological mean (average between 1981 and 2010) was + 0.4 to + 2.5 °C in northern Japan, + 1.5 to + 2.7 °C in eastern Japan, and + 1.3 to + 2.8 °C in western Japan (JMA 2020c). The flowering process of Yoshino cherry trees requires a certain amount of chilling for dormancy release, followed by a certain amount of heating (Asakura et al. 2010; Chung et al. 2011). In areas where the annual mean temperature is high, a high temperature in winter delays dormancy release and the subsequent FFD (Maruoka and Itoh 2009). This delay may change the average geographical pattern o
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