Drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector of Bangladesh
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector of Bangladesh Shakila Aziz1 · Shahriar Ahmed Chowdhury2 Received: 15 July 2020 / Accepted: 17 October 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The electricity sector is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in Bangladesh, and the country has the target to reduce these emissions and follow an environmentally sustainable development strategy. In this study, we explore how population growth, affluence and energy technology factors affect the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the electricity sector in Bangladesh. This study employs an extended stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology model, using ridge regression for the analysis, covering a period from 1995 to 2014. The study also examines the presence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the chief drivers of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions are population, affluence, urbanization and the carbon intensity of fuels. Energy intensity affects carbon dioxide and methane emissions. Transmission losses do not have a significant positive influence on emissions of any of the gases except carbon dioxide. Our results also show that there is no evidence of the EKC with respect to greenhouse gases in the electricity sector. Our study suggests that Bangladesh should have policies promoting a cleaner energy mix, reduce the use of fossil fuels, and increase energy efficiency technologies to counter the polluting effects of a growing power sector. Graphic abstract
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S. Aziz, S. A. Chowdhury
Keywords STIRPAT · Carbon intensity · Transmission loss · Ridge regression · Greenhouse gas emissions · Bangladesh
Introduction Bangladesh is a fast industrializing country in South Asia, with a large population, and the highest population density among large countries (The World Bank 2020). In the recent decades, Bangladesh has undergone a trend of urbanization, industrialization and GDP growth, accompanied by increasing energy use and emissions. The carbon intensity of energy has been increasing because fossil fuels have been replacing traditional biomass or manual labor. As the population has been growing and becoming more affluent, the energy use per capita has also been increasing. The electricity access in the country has risen over the years. Unplanned urbanization and industrialization have been the sources of environmental pollution in Bangladesh, which has reached one of the worst levels in the world (World Bank 2018). Bangladesh needs to urgently reduce its emissions to keep the environment healthy for its citizens, and accordingly has a roadmap to achieve the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from the power, industry and transport sectors. This aims to reduce emissions by 5
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