Increasing food production and mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union: impacts of carbon
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Increasing food production and mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union: impacts of carbon pricing and calorie production targeting Ancuta Isbasoiu1 · Pierre‑Alain Jayet1 · Stéphane De Cara1 Received: 22 May 2020 / Accepted: 18 October 2020 © Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies and Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract This study focuses on the links between food production and greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. The analysis relies on two sets of simulations of AROPAj, a supply-side model of EU agriculture: (i) a carbon price affecting agricultural GHG emissions (from 0 to 200 EUR/tCO2eq), and (ii) a lower limit on the net quantity of food calories provided by EU agriculture (200 to 450 Mt soft wheat equivalent). The model is calibrated on six annual datasets 2007–2012. The results show that a moderate increase in the price of carbon would lead to an increase in total areas and outputs of crops. Animal production decreases over the explored range of carbon price. At 200 EUR/tCO2eq, the reduction in GHG emissions ranges from 25 to 35% depending on the year of calibration. The results also show that current net calorie production from food can be more than doubled, while simultaneously reducing GHG emissions by 10–15%. The compatibility between a reduction in GHG emissions and an increase in food calorie production relies on substantial changes in animal production and feed, which implies significant variations in grassland and fallow land. These effects are contrasted between the regions of the EU. Keywords Greenhouse gas emissions · Food production · Carbon price · European Union · mathematical programming model JEL Classification Q18 · Q54
* Pierre‑Alain Jayet pierre‑[email protected] 1
Economie publique, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, 78850 Thiverval‑Grignon, France
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Environmental Economics and Policy Studies
1 Introduction One of the major challenges of the 21st century is to ensure an appropriate and viable food system (United Nations 2015) while simultaneously reducing negative impacts on the environment (Garnett 2011). Relationships between agriculture, climate change, and the environment are at the center of these debates in the scientific literature (Foley et al. 2011; Godfray 2014; Meijl et al. 2018; Röös et al. 2017; Gregory et al. 2005; Ludi 2009; Deering 2014; Frank et al. 2017; Devereux and Edwards 2004; Beddington et al. 2012; Wilkes et al. 2013). Agriculture is one of the productive activities most affected by climate change and, at the same time, must be an integral part of any strategy to mitigate global anthropogenic GHG emissions. To achieve the objective set by the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 °C, the analysis of the mutual relationship between climate change and agricultural production is of major interest. The dynamics of agricultural development are a result of the growing demand for food at the global level, with Europe being one of the m
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