Drought Risk Analysis for Water Assessment at Gauged and Ungauged Sites in the Low Rainfall Regions of Pakistan
- PDF / 1,735,934 Bytes
- 24 Pages / 439.37 x 666.142 pts Page_size
- 69 Downloads / 198 Views
Drought Risk Analysis for Water Assessment at Gauged and Ungauged Sites in the Low Rainfall Regions of Pakistan Hamd Ullah 1
& Muhammad Akbar
1
Received: 8 June 2020 / Accepted: 23 October 2020/ # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract
In this study, projection of droughts was performed using monthly precipitation and temperature data in the Balochistan and Sindh provinces of Pakistan. Rainfall is the main source of water in the study area. The Reconnaissance Drought Index was used to explore drought events from the selected sites of the regions. The index-flood procedure was used to perform the drought analysis in the study area. Two statistical methods were used to select Generalized Pareto distribution as the most acceptable distribution for drought risk assessment. The distribution was estimated through the L-moments approach for both regions. Three problems were addressed in this study. Regional analysis was performed for regional quantiles covering a large area and on-site analysis for each site’s drought projections. The Monte Carlo simulations procedure was utilized for reliability assessment of estimated quantiles that proved likeness at lower return periods and uncertainty at higher return periods. Lastly, quadratic regression was performed between drought means and site characteristics for drought quantiles at ungauged sites. According to the results, there are chances of more drought in the future if the recent climatic conditions continue in the study area. The study results will help stakeholders, government, and water resource managers in preparing plans about drought and water availability in the area. Keywords Reconnaissance drought index . Regional quantiles . On-site analysis . Ungauged sites . Quadratic regression
1 Introduction There are some common extreme hydrological issues for hydraulic scientists and engineers like droughts, floods, cyclones, etc. A proper investigation and assessment of extreme * Hamd Ullah [email protected]
1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, International Islamic University, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Ullah H., Akbar M.
hydrological events is a key step in preparing and designing hydrological structures all over the world. Drought risk assessment and control of water system is important to ensure protection against the fragile effects of hazardous events. The nature and intensity of drought features have a significant role in future planning for water management and supply, in areas where it occurs recurrently and may lead to economic losses and social issues (Quesada-Montano et al. 2018). Assessment of drought/flood frequency and magnitudes using probability distributions are critical for the planning of climate-related disasters, management of water supplies and storages, and design of drainage structures (Saf 2010). Drought produces water scarcity and limits its accessibility, which affect life on the globe (Eslamian and Eslamian 2017). Predicting future drought events is an essential and popular activity that gives a foundation for accu
Data Loading...
