Effects of misinformation diffusion during a pandemic
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RESEARCH
Effects of misinformation diffusion during a pandemic Lorenzo Prandi and Giuseppe Primiero*
*Correspondence: [email protected] Department of Philosophy, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
Abstract The role of misinformation diffusion during a pandemic is crucial. An aspect that requires particular attention in the analysis of misinfodemics is the rationale of the source of false information, in particular how the behavior of agents spreading misinformation through traditional communication outlets and social networks can influence the diffusion of the disease. We studied the process of false information transmission by malicious agents, in the context of a disease pandemic based on data for the COVID-19 emergency in Italy. We model communication of misinformation based on a negative trust relation, supported by findings in the literature that relate the endorsement of conspiracy theories with low trust level towards institutions. We provide an agent-based simulation and consider the effects of a misinfodemic on policies related to lockdown strategies, isolation, protection and distancing measures, and overall negative impact on society during a pandemic. Our analysis shows that there is a clear impact by misinfodemics in aggravating the results of a current pandemic. Keywords: COVID-19, Misinformation, Misinfodemic, Multi-agent system
Introduction The importance of clear and fast communication of policies by governments during a pandemic has been evident on an unprecedented scale during the spread of COVID19. But the COVID-19 pandemic has also caused an incredible diffusion of conspiracy theories and fake news of any sorts. Misinformation has concerned all facets of the pandemic: well-known are the theories that relate the origin of the virus to its creation in laboratories, and many are the prodigious antidotes proposed to cure or prevent the infection, many of these missing any scientific basis. In this paper, we are specifically interested in the spread of misinformation resulting from scepticism towards policies and proper behaviour guidance by governments. Assessing the role of misinformation diffusion is crucial for its impact on policies aimed at limiting the circulation of the virus, for example by imposing the use of personal protective equipment (PPE), distancing measures and lockdown strategies. The literature has investigated this problem in a number of ways and through different metodologies: data analysis from a variety of sources, interviews, telephone surveys, online experiments with participants, and also agent-based models (Bridgman et al. 2020; Hameleers
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